( - promoted by Carnacki)
The 2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election had mostly good news and yet some bad as well. First off I want to apologize for being wrong on the date that the last Republican governor was governor. It was 1967 and not the 50s like I thought it was. I sincerely apologize for my mistake. First for the good news: Democratic gubernatorial candidate Steve Beshear as expected won in a landslide over law-breaking Republican governor Ernie Fletcher. While we Democrats didn't quite receive that magical 60 percent we had hoped we would receive, Democrats carried just about carried every part of the state, including even prominent supposedly Republican strongholds in western Kentucky and the Cincinnati-Covington suburbs. Those parts of Kentucky get a bum rap for being too Republican when actually independents are the dominant force up there. Thus I'm not surprised as much as most people are. And the same is true for western Kentucky as well where the evangelical presence is perhaps the strongest in the Bluegrass State. The eastern Kentucky coalfields, the part of Kentucky that is almost exactly like our home state of West Virginia in every way, as expected remained Democratic and even normally reliable Republican Johnson, Martin, and yes almost always Republican Leslie County, a county that former Republican President Richard Nixon even visited, believe it or not, voted Democratic this time. South Central Kentucky the most Republican part of the state as expected because more voters there are Southern sympathizers who usually vote more like the Deep South than any other part of Kentucky was where Fletcher did his best, and even there were cracks in Republican support. And the Democratic city of Louisville in Jefferson County where the African-American effect is the greatest in Kentucky went 2 to 1 in favor of Beshear, and since there are still 5 precincts in Jefferson County where the final vote totals still haven't been calculated yet the margin statewide for Beshear will probably be a little larger and cross the 59 percent mark but not quite the 60 percent I and many other Democrats had hoped for. UPDATE: All Jefferson County precincts have now been officially counted meaning 100 percent of the precincts have been counted. There was no change in the percentages. And Democrats won every other statewide office quite convincingly except for popular Republican Secretary of Agriculture Richie Farmer, whose days as a decent former U of Kentucky basketball player couldn't have hurt his chances, and the Republican Secretary of State Trey Grayson. Now for the little bad news: Current Republican Secretary of State Trey Grayson beat Democratic challenger Bruce Hendrickson - spelling - by a larger margin than we Dems hoped for receiving approximately 57 to 58 percent of the vote over Democratic challenger Bruce Hendrickson 42 to 43 percent. And of course not quite reaching 60 percent in the gubernatorial race of course. The 2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election's impact on Kentucky, West Virginia, and Virginia and the rest of the nation as well: I'm firmly convinced now that Kentucky will be an unexpected battleground in the 2008 presidential election. Though I still give the Republicans a slight edge there due to the margin of victory in the gubernatorial race being a little closer than what I had originally suspected, the Republicans will now have to spend more time and effort in the Bluegrass State than they ever dreamed possible. This in a state where Bush actually broke the 60 percent mark in 2004 and in a state which is socially conservative and the evangelical impact is huge. I don't know if I've ever seen any presidential election where a political party is in danger of not carrying a state where they won over 60 percent of the vote. But this might be an exception. As for the Virginias, our beloved home state of West Virginia and our neighbors the "other" Virginia, to me it's currently 50/50 in both states. Since West Virginia is much more like Kentucky than Virginia is except for the far southwestern portion of the Old Dominion, I feel it's a virtual 50/50 tossup in all three states right now. As for three other states: Tennessee, North Carolina, and Indiana that Kentucky's gubernatorial results could have an impact on, the Republicans currently have a slight lead there right now but those three states could shock a ton of folks in 2008 if the conditions are just right. North Carolina and Tennessee have strong Democratic bases and very very popular and effective Democratic governors and could be ripe for the picking believe it or not. Indiana would definitely be a shocker since it's a Republican base state where no Democratic presidential nominee has carried it since Lyndon Johnson did in 1964. But currently Indiana is one of the most trending Democratic states in the nation right now, having thrown out 3 incumbent Republican US House or Representative members out of office in 2006 in favor of moderate Democrats. But the best news of all is the Democratic victories in our bordering state the great Buckeye state of Ohio, the state that most often determines who is President. Democrats in Ohio were victorious big time last night in the local elections up there. Voters in Ohio still have not forgotten the debacle of 2004, where then Republican Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell was huge in the state that eventually was the difference between having a second Bush term instead of John Kerry being our current president But he like most other prominent Republicans in Ohio were defeated soundly in 2006 and once again last night in 2007... and yes in 2006 that included the all-important underrated Secretary of State's office. I also learned just recently that under Ohio election law that the number and percentage of poll workers there in the Buckeye State are decided by the margins of the last election each even year, and since we Democrats won in a landslide in Ohio in 2006 that gives us Democrats just that much more hope that we can elect our nominee for president in 2008 If Ohio stays solidly Democratic in 2008 like it is now here in 2007 - and it looks just great for us right now - it will be very difficult if not impossible for the Republicans to win no matter whom the nominees are. And on Jan. 21, 2009 the very sad eight-year period of the Bush presidency and complete Republican rule in government will officially thank God be over. And finally we Americans will have taken our great country back, hopefully this time for good. |
