| It's been a while since I chimed in on the 2008 race for the White House. Today I'm going to start with the Democrats. In a later post I'll discuss the Republicans.
Here are my general observations:
* Al Gore is not going to run. In the 1 in a 100 possibility of a brokered convention maybe he'd show up as a possibility, but I just don't see that scenario unfolding.
* Despite the efforts of the DNC and other states, the outcome in Iowa and New Hampshire is still highly likely to decide the nomination. Iowa has set its caucus date for early January. The N.H. date isn't set yet, but the best indications are it will be 3-7 days after Iowa.
* Michigan and Florida are looking irrelevant in their unauthorized efforts to jump to early dates. Michigan is running into court challenges with their date. Florida has been effectively frozen out with DNC delegate sanctions. It's hard to see how Nevada and South Carolina can save any candidate before Super Tuesday on Feb 5. The media narrative from Iowa and N.H. will be overwhelming.
* Iowa is up for grabs. Because of its unique caucus system, Iowa is notoriously difficult to accurately poll. Second place choices matter. Being competitive in every precinct is more important than a typical primary system. The lengthy process requires dedicated participants. The complicated process favors campaigns with strong field operations and experienced caucus goers who can convince first-time participants to show up and stick with a candidate through multi-round voting.
* At times both Richardson and Dodd have looked like they might make a run to stay in the solid second tier of this race. Lately Biden -- on the strength of his consistently strong debate performances -- has generated talk of being the "dark horse." It doesn't matter. With three strong candidates at the top, no one else has a chance. They are all running for VP, cabinet posts, or (heaven forbid) 2012.
* I will be shocked if Edwards, Clinton or Obama stumbles badly enough to fall out of the top 3 in Iowa. If Edwards finishes 3rd in Iowa his campaign is done for. The media is itching to turn the race into a Clinton vs. Obama story.
* Supporters of Edwards, Clinton, and Obama can all point to evidence for a good showing in Iowa. They each have recent polls they like and recent polls they dislike. A lot can change in the next six weeks.
As I said, it's all still up for grabs! |
