Iowa Caucus expectations and results

by: Clem Guttata

Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 20:47:00 PM EST

Of course, there's another possiblity not getting much discussion -- a tie. It's quite possible that support for the top 3 Dems will be so closely bunched as to decide nothing.

Update: real time reporting of Dem results is available at Iowa Caucus results. TPM has both Dem and Rep results.

Update 2 from Carnacki: Someone heat up a big old serving of crow (but keep a watch on the carving knife) for former Senate Minority Leader and Republican blogger Vic Sprouse to eat. Remember how he mocked Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul for being against the Iraq war?

I've held off and held off and held off on this post, but it's time to set the record straight about Ron Paul.

First, let me say this, and there are a few avid readers of this blog who I respect, but simply don't support who they support. So, because of them, I have really held off writing anything negative about Texas Congressman Ron Paul because, well, he and his candidacy are irrelevant.

Now, don't get me wrong, I love people being involved in the political process. And, everyone out there has a right to their own opinions about who they support for President.

And, there is no doubt, the small amount of people who support Ron Paul are fervent in their beliefs.

At the beginning of the convention process, I said an outsider candidate with little support, but with a strong grassrooots organization, could come in and make a statement because of the wide open set-up of our new party primary convention.

Let's be honest here.

Any Republican advocating surrender and immediate withdrawal from Iraq, allowing that country to completely implode is not going to get more than 2% of the Republican Party. And, that's exactly what Ron Paul has.

How did Vic's favorite presidential candidate, uber war supporter Rudy Guiliani do?

Giuliani  3,053  4 percent  
Paul  8,549  10 percent

Can Sprouse pick them or what? Now we're just dirty hippy bloggers proud to support whoever the Democratic nominee is and Sprouse is a professional Republican politician who likes to talk a big game about wars he'll never serve in.

But once again the amateur Democratic bloggers were right and the professional Republican politician was wrong.

I've never been one to say, "I hate to say I told you so." Heck, I love saying it most of the time. This is one of those times.

Me way back on Nov. 28 on Guiliani's campaign:

As Gorilla Monsoon would say, Stick a fork in Rudy Guiliani. He's done.

If Vic Sprouse tells you something, you can probably believe the opposite and be right every time.

Update 3 from Carnacki

I've said it before and I'll say it again, anyone of our Democratic candidates would be better than any of the Republican candidates. If voter turnout is any sign, many agree with me. Via kos, the Group News Blog:

Percentage of total vote
24.5% Obama
20.5% Edwards
19.8% Clinton
11.4% Huckabee (R)

When the 3rd placed Democratic finisher nearly doubles the Republican who ran away from the pack of other Republican candidates, it's a great sign for Democrats.

It's Senator Barack Obama's night