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New Hampshire Primary thread

by: Clem Guttata

Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 09:04:57 AM EST


Update: Chris Bowers has a final round-up of all the polling numbers for New Hampshire. (Something to keep us busy while we wait for real numbers to arrive.)

Update: Polls close at 8PM ET. Here's a site that looks like a good choice for online results.

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Here's your place to talk about all things related to the New Hampshire primary today. I'll keep making updates here as I find anything interesting today to add to the discussion.

To kick things off, this is the single best piece I've seen on the challenge Clinton faces in overcoming Obama's new-found position as front-runner.

Edwards current strategy appears to be informally teaming up with Obama to knock out Clinton... then survive long enough to take on Obama one-on-one... or, if both Obama and Clinton survive until the convention, Edwards may well have enough delegates to crown the victor.

Any predictions for today?

As far as I can tell, the conventional wisdom is an Obama victory, Clinton in second, Edwards in third. Something like 40-30-20 numbers.

On the Republican side the press is pushing McCain as a come-back kid with Romney and Huckabee fighting for second. If Romney finishes anything less than 10 points back from the winner he's in big trouble. Any decent showing from Huckabee is a win for him in the "non-evangelical" state of New Hampshire (never mind that he also has populist appeal, it's the evangelical angle that gets all the attention -- plus he's put almost no time or money into New Hampshire).

Clem Guttata :: New Hampshire Primary thread
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I'm usually sceptical of Joe Klein, but if this is true, (0.00 / 0)
and I have no reason to believe it's not, then this is amazing and validates everything I've thought about Obama.

Gobama!  


jay -- thanks for pointing that story out (0.00 / 0)
I don't have any great insights as to whether the story says anything unique about Obama or not...

Here's the corrected link. There's quite a bit of discussion about the story at this dKos diary.


[ Parent ]
Thanks for the help, Clem. I've got to slow down. (4.00 / 1)
I may be making too much of it, but for me it hints at the possibility of a combination of the hero-worship of Mohammed Ali in Zaire and James Monroe's Liberia. Think of the young potential terrorist in Indonesia rethinking things because someone like him has become the President of the United States.

There are a lot of countries in the world that are on the fence about the US and I can't help but think that having Barak Hussein Obama, a smart, calm, classy, well spoken man, as our leader will improve our standing in this shrinking world we live in.  


[ Parent ]
Maybe some more insight, Clem (4.00 / 1)
This, about Obama's grandmother, is what I'm talking about. (h/t Blue Texan)

[ Parent ]
Jay -- Thanks, that makes more sense to me now. (0.00 / 0)
I can see what you mean about Obama as president being an even more influential figure in Africa over and above other Dems. I think any Dem will have a huge positive influence on our standing in the world as we return to a rational foreign policy that believes in the value of diplomacy, cooperation, and global citizenship.

I'm less convinced that a potential middle-eastern terrorist is going to care that much about a bi-racial Christian, who happens to have a muslim Kenyan father,  serving as US president. Still, I am optimistic that policies of an Obama administration would have a very positive impact -- esp. if he follows through on getting us out of Iraq quickly. And, maybe yes, after demonstrated changes in policy all those other things might kick in, too.

All that being said, it is incredibly exciting to me that there's such a good chance the 2008 presidential election will break a gender or color barrier. After going on 8 years of the Bush administration beating down the American dream, that would be a highly refreshing symbolic rejuvenation of what is best about our country.


[ Parent ]
predictions (0.00 / 0)
Here's what Kos (who nailed Iowa) says for NH. Matt Stoller hews closer to the CW.

In other campaign posts, Achorn has a funny cartoon of the day.


poetry and prose (4.00 / 1)
Agreed that Hillary persists in the prose approach, lecturing, dealing with issues, etc., while Obama takes the poetic approach.

In Crashing the Gate, Markos Moulitsas and Jerome Armstrong suggest that the Democratic campaign strategy has been wrong for several cycles.  They point out that Republicans have won with things like "Morning in America."

So Hillary is going down in the traditional Democratic Party fashion.

Time for a change.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they attack you, THEN YOU WIN! - Gandhi


exit poll numbers (0.00 / 0)
Per Rimjob at dKos:

In the comments & around the web, these seem to be the numbers making the rounds. We'll find out in a little bit how close to reality they are.

Obama 41%
Clinton 37%
Edwards 15%

McCain 36%
Romney 30%
Huckabee 13%
Paul 11%
Giuliani 9%



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