Quick analysis of John Unger's departure from WV-02

Unger saving himself for future run (4.00 / 2)

I agree with you Clem on your take on John's sudden departure from the race and I know from talking with him last night that his concerns are the same as yours.  While it's understandable for folks to be upset about his decision when you see the reasoning behind it starts to make more sense and will ultimately change WV democratic politics as usual as a result of this.  First we have a virtual unknown delegate from Raleigh county file against Manchin for the primary, then we have Unger dropping out and Barth getting in, I see a very volitile and exciting campaign season coming upon us...It's great to be a Democrat in a state that will learn from this and hopefully gain insight as to how our party is run and who it is beholden to.  Democrats have a duty to stand for something, we can't have it both ways.

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by: JBdem4usa @ Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 09:47:26 AM CST

Unger (4.00 / 2)

It sounds as though Unger is blaming everyone but himself.  He received more endorsements and help than any other candidate prior to the filing period than I have ever seen.  In fact, the WV Party, Labor, Congressman Rahall and Congressman Mollohan have all received a lot of negative attacks because they were helping him so much prior to the Primary.  It is ridiculous and misleading for anyone to blame them or our Governor for Unger pulling out of the race.  This was Unger's campaign and his race to get out there and win.  The way he has handled himself is reprehensible.  I have no problem with him pulling out, he should have just let people know ahead of time.  Instead, he waits until the last day of the filing period?  What kind of person does that?  Definitely not someone that cares about the Democratic Party.   Thank God we have another candidate willing to step up and start from behind.  She will be one that is not afraid to work, definitely isn't whining and won't blame everyone else for no reason.  GO ANNE!!  

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by: SusanW @ Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 11:11:38 AM CST

SusanW -- thanks for your comment (0.00 / 0)

Thanks for your comment. It sounds like you know Anne. I hope she is as good a candidate as you describe. That would be great. If you have an insights on her stance on issues like the Iraq War, abortion, gay rights, global warming, mountain top removal, domestic surveillance, universal health care, etc., I'm quite eager to hear more details.

To clarify re: your comments... I've not heard anyone blame "Labor, Congressman Rahall and Congressman Mollohan." They were all very supportive of Unger's candidacy. No complaints there.

Many months ago the W.Va. Dem. party issued a press release highlighting Capito's negative record on issues important to W.Va. Democrats. Since then, nothing. That's the kind of support they could be providing on a regular basis to make WV-02 more winnable.

I'm not sure how it is "ridiculous or misleading" to blame Gov. Manchin for Unger pulling out of the race. Of course Unger himself is totally responsible for making the decision to drop out. What I was trying to point out is a major factor in that decision seems to be Gov. Manchin likes having a Republican Rep. Capito in office just fine. As others have pointed out in the comments, there are several pieces of objective evidence in favor of that conclusion.

I remain just as committed today to wanting to be represented by a Democratic Representative in Washington. Perhaps with her Byrd and Kanawha county connections, Anne Barth will be more successful than Unger was in swaying the Manchin/Moore-Capito constituency.

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by: Clem Guttata @ Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 17:40:22 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Hard to see any silver linings (4.00 / 3)

Clem, you are usually right on in your analysis but I think you are off base on this one. I do not see Robb as having presented a credible threat to Unger in the primary. So I just do not see this as a justifiable reason for Unger to have bailed out... especially considering his horrible timing.

In the 2006 primary Robb hit his ceiling quickly by jumping out early and screaming loudly about the war. Mike Callaghan and Mark Hunt shot right past him as soon as they engaged. Robb has decent name rec from all the publicity stunts he's pulled over the years. What he doesn't have is credibility or respect. It's hard to imagine Robb doing better or even as well as he did in 2006. What support his So Char buddy got would have come out of Robb's pocket. Unger would have rolled through the primary.

I agree with you that enthusiasm from the state party apparatus has been less than it should have for a challenge to Capito... both in Mike Callaghan's run last cycle and Wells' in 2004. When this really hurt was in the Callaghan run. Despite a lack of financial assets, Mike knocked Capito down another couple of points to the cusp of the magic 55 percent number which signals extreme vulnerability.

Without the Callaghan effort in 2006, it seems doubtful Unger would have been able to generate the interest from national donors which swelled his coffers to close to around $300K when he punted. Without the Callaghan effort, Capito would have had a million or so in reserve for this cycle and future races.

Mike left her wounded and broke and having to raise funds from the minority. Unger made the right moves. Finally the DCCC noticed we had a vulnerable incumbent holding a majority_democratic district. Unger lined up the DC ducks in a sweet little row... then bailed at the last moment.

What the heck does the approval of a few of the Charleston-based elite matter? He had money. He had a nice biography. He had a base in the one part of the district where the population is growing. Forget what a few dozen folks in Charleston think: go around them. If you do not like the way the pie is sliced, bake a new one. He had the resopurces to do this. If he had half Mike Callaghan's stump presence, he had a real shot in November.

We are supposed to believe a guy we were counting on to have  the grit to beat Arch's whelp shied away because of concern over a divisive primary battle against a gadfly like Robb?

Mike Callaghan won the 2006 primary without money facing Robb with the antiwar vote locked down and Mark Hunt spending like a drunken sailor.

Yeah, Mike went into the general dead broke but so what? He won without going negative, avoiding any real division within the ranks. He had good grassroots enthusiasm. What he lacked was financial backing from the in-state elites you mention. What he needed was the DC-based help Unger has lined up. WV02 is not a  wealthy district. Unless we have a self-funded candidate like in 2000 and 2002, the money is going to have to come from out of state.

Mike knocked Capito down to 57 percent with her dropping two million dollars in attack ads on his head. Imagine what he could have been able to do if he could have fired back.

What I really wish is Mike Callaghan had ran again and got the DC-backing Unger did.

But that didn't happen.

Anne Barth looks to be a respectable candidate. Hopefully Unger has not poisoned the well. Hopefully Senators Byrd and Rockefeller along with the state's House delegation and the Congressional leadership can convince folks to reinvest in Barth as they had in Unger. Barth citing a call from Pelosi is encouraging, though I would feel better if she was reporting recruitment calls from Van Hollen, Hoyer and Emmanuel as well. We do seem to have squabbling factions within the national party as well.

What frightens me, though, is the possibility the ship has already sailed. And the money slated for this district will be diverted to others. Unger burned them badly and I fear they will be gun shy about investing in WV02 now. I understand how hard it is to get the DC folks interested in this district. I worry how much more difficult it will be to refocus them now that Unger burned them.

One question on my mind is what Unger intends to do with the $300K he raised. As he bailed out in the exploratory phase, legally he can do anything he bloody well wants with it... except transfer it to another federal candidate en masse.

What he should do is give it to the DCCC with the understanding they will funnel it right back into the district. That money was contributed with the understanding it was to be used to beat Capito this year. And this is where it should go.

Keep the faith. We ain't beat yet. Maybe Barth can pull it off... chip into the female Dem and Indy support which keeps Capito afloat just as Unger might have been able to peel off the socially conservative Dems and Indies who do the same thing. And I do no think anyone has the stones to try and suppress fundraising by a Byrd protege in state.

The open question, though, is whether Unger has so poisoned the well that the national apparatus is going to abandon this fight. And the decision to cut and run rather than fight it out was Unger's alone.
 

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by: pinhick @ Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 12:20:38 PM CST

pinhick -- we mostly agree (0.00 / 0)

Thanks for your insights. I think we're largely in agreement.

I think it totally sucks that Unger quit. If he had sought my advice (he didn't), I would have told him to fight it out. (On the other hand, I would never wish the travails of running for an office like this on anyone.

The biggest difference I see is our view in what it meant when Robb entered the race. I agree with you, Unger would have beaten him handily. It would have been a nuisance, but a contested primary may well have made Unger a stronger candidate (assuming Robb didn't somehow majorly improve his fund-raising abilities).

To me, it was the timing of Robb's entry combined with Manchin's recent spate of pro-Capito statements providing a clear signal.

It suggests to me that Manchin was worried that Unger had a chance to win and instead of jumping onto the Unger bandwagon, Manchin firmly placed his bet with Capito. My surmising here is, after sending mixed signals all Fall, the signals became clear this month that Manchin's personal relationship with Shelley would prevail. If Manchin was going to keep throwing up roadblocks, that's a difficult task to take on. He can shut down a lot of fund-raising, campaign opportunities, and in-state party support.

Robb had openly flirted with running--it was all in the paper about how he might file but he wasn't sure. If Manchin and the state party were aboard with the "clear the field" strategy they would have send Robb a unequivocal message not to run. It is a real affront to Rahall, Mollohan, and the DCCC that Manchin sided with Capito.

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by: Clem Guttata @ Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 18:00:40 PM CST

[ Parent ]

The gospel according to john? (4.00 / 2)

It's clear sides have been drawn and you all are spouting what I'm sure is Unger's narrative. To suggest this is both the Governor's and the WV State Party's fault is ridiculous.

"There was a lack of strong enough support from...and the W.Va. Dem. party and that strategy did not pan out."

That is a terrible argument to make. I was at a few events where I saw the Chairman of the Party go out and speak highly of John Unger at various times. He was beating his praises all over. The Party took it upon themselves from the beginning it seemed to make him their candidate. They took a risk. They obviously gambled poorly.

At the end of the day this about personal responsibility and it's obvious John Unger doesn't have any. To blindly suggest the fabrications that Clem Guttata is presenting is his right.

I'm utterly disappointed and disenfranchised by this decision. When I heard John Unger speak, it reminded me how we can lift the dialogue and policy to higher level. He was about empowering individuals to solve local problems. He was also about taking risks and defying the odds. His entire career has been about that. Today you saw the death of that. I'm saddened by that. If he truly was about defying the odds and what you apparently say is true about the Gov...then he should have just pushed forward as he always does. This is an ego problem. Flat out. I'm disappointed to see that side of him. Obviously given the Governor's popularity in the Eastern Panhandle, he could have been more of a liability to Unger than an advantage. Did you consider that? Doubtful.

Granted I doubt any of you have gotten out of your ivory tower to see what the Governor has done for Sen. Unger. I was at an event in Charleston where I saw him speak highly of him (doesn't sound like a Capito supporter to me...)

Since you provided your stellar analysis of the situation...here's mine. Sen. Unger failed to execute any of the political will that was thrown his way. He didn't obviously want it. Everything was handed to him and yet you claim it was too hard for him to continue. Geez, I'd hate to see what it had been like if the Party didn't recruit him, the DCCC stayed away, labor ran off, The Governor didn't support him, the Congressman, Treasurer Perdue, plus I believe all the resolutions I heard the Eastern Panhandle counties passed encouraging him to run.

Stop blaming other people and take personal responsibility. At the end of the day it was his campaign and his race to win or lose. You say we lost because of a few powerful elites? Well John Unger was always about beating the odds, standing up to that. Circumventing that. But I guess Mother Theresa teaches you to quit when things get a bit rough or you may have to some hard work.

Of course all of us are speculating 'why?' And I am as well. The inevitable press releases will spin why he isn't. He has to work for the people in his district, after soul searching and praying it's better for him to concentrate on that, while it's easier to carry his narrative to the masses of blaming the Party and Governor.

This is by far the best political theater I have witnessed in some time. Capito could not have hoped for a better outcome and look who comes out bad...not really Unger, but Labor, the Governor, the state party, our congressmen etc... They were the ones out there beating the drum for him and are the ones with egg on their face.  

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by: truebluedem @ Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 15:07:04 PM CST

Clem (4.00 / 1)

I just got off the phone with a friend from the 2004 Kerry/Edwards campaign. One of Barth's friends is one of the people from our merry 2004 crew and wants to sit down with us.  

When a man embarks upon a crime, he is morally guilty of any other crime which may spring from it. Sherlock Holmes.

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by: Carnacki @ Wed Jan 30, 2008 at 20:16:34 PM CST