| Credit where credit is due...
First off, congratulations to the West Virginia Republican party. They rolled the dice with their new convention caucus process this year. From what I can see it will be a smashing success at achieving their primary goal--getting the party out of debt.
It'll also have a positive effect of giving West Virginia some Super Tuesday election day coverage. We may not be a completely forgotten state this primary cycle after all!
It's far less clear if this not-so-democratic exercise creates enthusiasm for the Republican party, brings in any new members to stay, or does anything other than confuse voters when the Republican primary happens for the other half of the delegates.
Also, they've still got to put their best foot forward at the convention itself--let's see what kind of press narrative comes out the event.
Who will win?
Could Ron Paul win the W.Va. Republican caucus? Now that Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are slated to make personal appearances in addition to Ron Paul, no. Rep. Paul appears to have the most dedicated band of genuine grassroots support in West Virginia, but the Republican party insiders will never let him win.
The multi-round, winner-take-all voting at the convention will keep Ron Paul (or Mike Huckabee, for that matter) from forging a winning coalition.
To me, the big question is if Mitt Romney can sway enough people with his personal appearance. Romney clearly has the edge on economic issues over McCain--this year's big issue for W.Va. Republicans. Will that be enough? |
