Weekend Democratic Party presidential elections

by: Clem Guttata

Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 08:47:41 AM EST

This weekend there are 182 more delegates at stake. Eric Kleefeld at TPM Election Central has a state-by-state breakdown:

Louisiana primary — Saturday, 56 delegates: Obama is considered the favorite here due largely to the large portion black voters among the state's Democrats, and his past performance in the Deep South primaries in South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama. (snip)

Nebraska caucus — Saturday, 24 delegates: Obama has done very well in Mountain/Prairie state caucuses, such as his 74% showing in neighboring Kansas on Super Tuesday, on account of the small Democratic establishments that do exist in this region giving him their support. (snip)

Washington State caucus — Saturday, 78 delegates: This is the single biggest contest of the weekend, and also the one taking place in the bluest state. Although Hillary built up the early support of establishment figures like former Gov. Gary Locke, Sen. Maria Cantwell and recently Sen. Patty Murray, Obama has caught up very quickly. This week he won the endorsement of the state SEIU, the largest union in the state, and today he got the support of current Gov. Christine Gregoire. Also bear in mind that caucuses are all about organization and intensity on the part of a candidate's followers. A SurveyUSA poll released Monday put Obama ahead 53%-40%.

Maine caucus — Sunday, 24 delegates: There hasn't been any major polling on this race, but on paper it looks like Hillary Clinton's best chance for a victory this weekend. She has the support of the state's Democratic establishment, led by Gov. John Baldacci and former Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell, and the demographics don't help Obama very much.

In his prediction thread, Jerome Armstrong at MyDD reprints the actual spreadsheet projections from the Obama campaign:

             Obama (delegates)       Clinton (delegates)

Louisiana    54% (31)                 44% (25)
Nebraska     60% (15)                 40% (9)
Virgin Isl.  60% (2)                  40% (1)
Washington   60% (49)                 40% (29)
Maine        49% (10)                 51% (14)

Delegate total:   107                      78

After this weekend, it's on to the mid-atlantic states with Virginia, Maryland and DC getting a week of primary limelight.