| So, 4 states are holding primaries (and/or caucuses) today. What do you think will happen?
From reading on the Intertubes, the general "conventional wisdom" appears to be:
- Ohio: Hillary's always been ahead there, though Obama's recently closed the gap in polls. If the nasty weather on the way arrives during the day, it could dampen turnout. Who that favors is anyone's guess. CW is Hillary's late surge will keep Obama from pulling an upset. She won't pick up much of a delegate win, but she'll have an important victory to point out as turning back the tide of Obama's momentum.
- Rhode Island: expect a big Hillary win. This is friendly Clinton territory. Obama did make a recent appearance there, which may help his numbers. Even if Hillary's win is "not as big as expected," other news of the day will overshadowed that.
- Vermont: expect a big Obama win. This is friendly Obama territory.
The net effect of RI and VT: it'll help Hillary's "X of X" win/loss ratio, but do nothing to close her significant delegate gap.
- Texas: The CW is: Hillary's late rebound is probably just enough to win the popular vote even if she loses in the delegate count; or, the popular vote is close enough to a tie and the caucus process is fraught with confusion, thus generating just enough questions about the results to push them out a news cycle or two. Either way, she'll probably hold on to just enough of a victory to give her reason to stay in the race.
So, in summary, Hillary will be hailed as stopping Obama's really strong momentum. On the other hand, she's not going to make up any substantial ground on the delegate count.
Obama supporters will use the day as evidence that Hillary should drop out; Hillary supporters as evidence that Hillary is on her way to winning.
What do I think will happen? I haven't a clue. It's been an election season full of surprises. Hillary out-performed polls in NH, since then Obama has been out-performing polls.
With the combination of early voting, unprecedented turn-out levels and proportional delegate allocations, there's no telling how the day will shake out. For political junkies like me, it's another fun day to sit back and watch. |
