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WV DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY BREAKDOWN

by: Jeremiah

Wed May 14, 2008 at 22:07:23 PM EDT


( - promoted by Carnacki)

Well, the candidate I support for President was beaten like a rented mule in Tuesday's WV Democratic Primary.  In this post I will offer some of my thoughts on WV's impact on the presidential race and give some commentary on other WV races that may have been overlooked due to the Barack and Hillary show.

WV'S POTENTIAL IMPACT ON THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE
I must tip my cap to Senator Hillary Clinton for her thorough drumming of Barack Obama in the WV Primary.  Senator Clinton won WV by almost 150,000 votes.  That margin is impressive as hell and signifies the strides that Hillary Clinton has made as a campaigner during this long Democratic Primary.  The national math is still overwhelmingly in favor of Barack Obama but this defeat is a wake up call to the Obama campaign.
Obama needs to not only speak to the issues of rural and blue collar workers but he must do so in a way that resonates with this population.  Obama has already showed that he hears this message loud and clear as he has visited rural Missouri and blue collar Michigan in the past two days as he looks to position himself for the general election.  Obama has the right policies for this population and now he needs to sell it to them.

I'd also like to use this moment to lambast those in the national media, as well as some of my fellow Obama supporters, on the issue of race and stereotyping.  Let me not mince words, Hillary Clinton did not win West Virginia because Barack Obama is from a mixed racial background nor did she win because West Virginians think that he is Muslim.  I am not so naïve as to believe that ethnicity plays no impact in the way that some voters determine how to cast their vote but to say that Hillary won WV due to that minority of voters is insulting not only to the Obama and Clinton campaigns but also to the state of WV and her people.  Let's face it; there are racists, bigots and idiots in all 50 states in the union but some in the national press used the stereotype of WV to mitigate and marginalize its vote.  I will be damned if I'll sit around while this stereotype is perpetuated and so should all of you.  It was wrong when Bill Clinton said that the South Carolina would go for Obama just because he is black just as it is wrong for others to imply that WV went for Hillary just because she is white.  

The Clinton name did a lot for Hillary in WV and she did a great job giving her populist message- basically, she portrayed herself as the working class, mountain mamma warrior and it worked with voters.  That says more about her than it does about Obama's shortfalls or people's bigotry so let's just keep that in mind.  

Ultimately, I think West Virginia's vote emphasizes the importance of the elderly and the blue collar worker.  Obama needs to continue to make in-roads with this population- not just for WV but for a whole cluster of states with similar populations.  Again, Obama has the right policies so now he just has to sell them.  I also think that Hillary's huge win should move her to the top of Obama's short list for VP.  She has transformed herself during this primary into the never quit kid and this image has resonated with rural and blue collar voters.  

With Hillary on the ticket, Obama assures himself of the best possible chances moving into the general election.  I realize that she also brings some baggage with her and there may be some hard feelings but changing the policies in Washington is our number one priority and with these two on the ticket we have the best chance to accomplish that goal.  

One last comment, Obama cannot write WV off.  The impact of such a move would play into accusations that Obama is snobbish and out of touch with common people.  I do not believe these accusations for one second, given Obama's background, but the perception of shunning hardworking WV could be potentially damaging elsewhere.  In addition, WV may only have five electoral votes but given the closeness of the past two elections those five votes matter.  Senator Obama, please come back to WV and help us in the state that believe in you convince our brothers and sisters why you are the best candidate for the job.  

SECOND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT- Anne Barth showed her popular appeal by nearly doubling the combined votes received by her two competitors.  Barth has a lot of work to do to unseat Shelly MOORE Capito but if the recent Congressional runoff elections in Louisiana and Mississippi are any indication then Democrats could be in store for major wins this November.  Barth would be wise to hit Shelly with every single stone she can pick up and I hope the DNC steps in to help her because I think she can do it.  As an aside, this race might serve as the political obituary for longtime South Charleston mayor Richie Robb.  He has lost this same race the past two elections and does not seem to be making any gains.

SECRETARY OF STATE- Natalie Tennant had a convincing victory in what was to be one of the more competitive statewide races.  Tennant was boosted by her name recognition across WV as she beat the combined total of her two opponents.  Tennant is famous for being the only female Mountaineer in WVU history as well as being a news anchor for several WV television stations as well as a special reporter for Mountaineer Magazine- the WVU Sports show.  I am really glad Tennant won and I personally think this is just a stepping stone for a very promising future.

As an aside, it will be interesting to see what happens in the House of Delegates leadership as Delegate Joe DeLong will have to be replaced as Majority Leader due to his race for SOS.  On this short list I would place Caputo, Miley, Proudfoot, Boggs and Ennis.

WV SUPREME COURT- This race gives me the greatest pleasure.  Don Blankenship proved to be political poison yet again as incumbent Spike Maynard was defeated by Menis Ketchum and Margaret Workman.  I was pulling for Bob Bastress personally but I am perfectly fine with Ketchum and Workman.  Maynard ended up finishing a distant third with Workman leading the ticket with a large majority of the votes.  They will face only one Republican in the general, Beth Walker.

30TH DELEGATE DISTRICT- Danny Wells, Bobbie Hatfield, Bonnie Brown, Sharon Spencer, Nancy Guthrie, Doug Skaff and Mark Hunt finished in the top seven with Doug Higgins failing to return.  I am fine with the results in this race minus Sharon Spencer.  I was surprised to see that Danny Wells receive the most votes in the district but with Palumbo leaving for the Senate it was spot up for grabs.

OTHER DELEGATE RACES- Carrie Webster of Charleston was in a surprisingly close race with newcomer Meesha Moore (a local public defender) for her seat.  Webster is one of the more powerful delegates as she chairs the very important Committee on the Judiciary.  I have no insight on why this race was so close other than to say that Meesha Moore attached herself solidly to Barack Obama who did very well in the 31st Delegate District.  Webster has no opposition from Republicans in the November and Moore is sure to be heard from again after such a strong showing- perhaps a mayoral candidate?

In addition to Doug Higgins (who was appointed to serve out the remainder of Jon Amores term), there were five other Democratic Delegate incumbents to lose Tuesday.  Kenneth Tucker of the 4th District, Ted Ellis and Lidella Hrutkay of the 19th District, Mike Burgess of the 22nd District and John Pino of the 29th District were all defeated with John Pino (one of the longest serving delegates) and Lidella Hrutkay (Roads and Transportation Chair) being the most notable.  

Hrutkay faced tough opposition in the 2006 Primary but I am really unsure as to why she has had such trouble securing a strong grasp on her seat.  As for Pino, he was targeted by labor this year for his aggressive stances against several labor endorsed bills.  Pino is one of the eldest members of the House and although his positions tend to differ from mine on quite a few issues, I always respected his opinions and took note when he rose to speak.

So there is my breakdown.  Hope you enjoyed it and as always feel free to comment if you agree but especially if you do not.  Thanks.
Jeremiah :: WV DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY BREAKDOWN
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WV DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY BREAKDOWN | 16 comments
Well said (4.00 / 3)
Great breakdown.

When a man embarks upon a crime, he is morally guilty of any other crime which may spring from it. Sherlock Holmes.
Great Summary but one Disagreement (4.00 / 2)
Nice job with the summary but I do have to dissagree with you on one point at least to some degree.  I do think that Hillary's big win was based on Name recognition but also believe that as in PA, to some extent in OH and in KY to come, a big issue is race.  

I believe that when you take someone as different as Obama with his skin color, his wierd name and his passionate pastor, those in these states are not comfortable with him.  It is difficult to convenience someone who does not know anyone like Barack and may go through their entire day if not life without seeing someone of another race in their comings and goings around their home community to then embrace him and vote for him.  The Appalachian part of the country (where I was born and raised) is land locked in some degree by lack of decent transportation systems due to the geography.  This geography (mountains) keeps businesses from setting up.  The lack of work or high paying jobs due to these two factors also keeps the ability of these Appalachian folks from accessing funds for education or for travel to others areas where they would be exposed to people who are different from them.

The generations remain where they grew up and thier beliefs and values are handed down.  Anyone different from them are just foreign.  Thus, how could they vote for this person to be President.  There is a lack of trust and fear in the unknown.  

Specific to WV, I'm sure you know that the state is about 95% white and only 17% have a college education (lowest in country) thus I do believe race was a big factor in Obama's big loss in WV.  To think otherwise is to be in denial about the relities of those that surround us and the facts about thier lack of opprotunities and access to the diversity of the real world.  

The white working class that Hillary and the media speak of a lot recently do not have many opprotunities to be exposed to higher education, better paying jobs, travel to learn about other cultures and races thus, the fear and discomfort and mistrust of those who are different from them is very high.  This I think was the #1 factor of Obama's huge defeat in WV and this will be repeated in KY.

Clinton name recognition helps but the reality is Obama is black, very different, some would say exotic.  It is easier to choose what you know, what seems familiar, what you are comfortable with, then to choose something different.  

George (4.00 / 3)
The claim made by DHinMI on the front page of Daily Kos was "The press, however, will lap up the talking points of the pundits, Clinton spinners (and Republicans) that losing Kentucky and West Virginia means that Obama won't do well with White voters, when it really means voters in Appalachia aren't ready to vote for a Black candidate, even though in most of the rest of the country they are. "

That is a bigoted statement to make against Appalachian Americns by painting an entire region as racist. You are also denying reaity and repeating a falsehood because the region votes an Arab American to Congress and an African American to the statehouse.

While race certainly has played a factor in every state, there is no evidence that no evidence to claim that there are more racists in West Virginia than in say California, where the largest number of hate groups is located. To say there are many racists in WV is one thing. One is too many. To say the entire region is racist as he did is bigotry at its worst and simply perpetuates a negative stereotype about the state.

When a man embarks upon a crime, he is morally guilty of any other crime which may spring from it. Sherlock Holmes.

[ Parent ]
I never used the word racist (4.00 / 3)
To me racist implies hate and I don't think the people of this state or region necessarily hate those that are different from them.  I do think they are not comfortable with those who are differnt from them and there is a level of mistrust and fear that drives them not to vote for someone who is Afican American with the name Barack Obama.

Of course this does not apply to every single person in the Appalachian region or in WV but I think it does apply enough as to help Hillary to win these areas/states by the large margins that she is.  That is not bigoted or racist it is reality.  

It doesn't mean that those people are bad or dumb or anything else negative, it just means they are fearful of and don't trust those who are different from them. It is a societal thing based on geography, economic and eduational opprotunity, and lack of exposure to the world outside of their local community or state.

[ Parent ]
George (4.00 / 3)
You're right that it's outsiders they're fearful of. Others, particularly at Daily Kos, have called the region racist. You're correct to point out the distinction between the two.

When a man embarks upon a crime, he is morally guilty of any other crime which may spring from it. Sherlock Holmes.
[ Parent ]
Comparison to 1960 (4.00 / 3)
I would like to use perhaps an overstated example in defense of WV. That example being JFK's win of the Mountain State in 1960. There were claims that people could not vote for Kennedy because he was a Catholic and that he would serve at the will and pleasure of the Pope. This was ludicrous, of course, but the perception of this barrier was powerful. JFK came to the state and made WV's poverty one of the pillars of his campaign. Obama needs to come to Appalachia and do the same and I believe he will. Once this happens and West Virginians are able to see who Obama really is and what he represents then our brethren will push him into the White House.
[ Parent ]
Excellent summary (4.00 / 3)
Two questions:

1) I heard DeLong outspent Tennant 6 to 1 and he also had the support of all the state's major unions. Do you think it was all a difference in name recognition or anything more to the campaigns that results in her victory?

2) There's two major concerns I have with Clinton as VP. One is that the right-wing-noise-machine gets to go into overdrive attack the Clintons, so you get all of her negatives without getting all of the (considerable) positives you'd have with her at the top of the ticket. The second is that her support for the Iraq War and hawkish stance re: Iran greatly undermine the logic of Obama's "judgement" and diplomacy arguments. In all, I see far more downside risk than upside benefit with her as VP.

So... to my question... I agree that having the vigorous support Clinton will be a huge asset for Obama in November. I don't see why she needs to be on the ticket in order for that to happen, though.

Do you think she (and Bill, for that matter) could also be effective campaining in places like West Virginia on Obama's behalf even if Clinton is not the VP? (I absolutely take her at her word that she's willing to do so if asked.) I'm thinking that would give us most of the benefit without the negatives of her as VP.

Answers... though maybe not the right ones (4.00 / 2)
Clem,
1. My observation is that Tennant beat DeLong on name recognition.  She spent her money in the last primary for the same seat and came dangerously close to winning.  (As a side note, I love Ken Hechler dearly, but wish Natalie had beaten him last time.)

2. I'm going to give an opinion on your actual question and avoid whether or not I think she should be on the ticket. "Do you think she (and Bill, for that matter) could also be effective campaigning in places like West Virginia on Obama's behalf even if Clinton is not the VP?"  Yes.  I think she would be highly effective.  I think we've already been witness to how effective the Clintons can be in WV.

3.  U.S. Attorney General John Edwards - I kinda like the sound of that.  I know you didn't have a 3, but I thought I'd throw it in anyway.

[ Parent ]
PDAWV (4.00 / 1)
What I liked about Tennant was something Clem had pointed out and that is she has an actual plan on what to do with the office.

When a man embarks upon a crime, he is morally guilty of any other crime which may spring from it. Sherlock Holmes.
[ Parent ]
SOS and VP Clinton (4.00 / 2)
1) I agree with PDAWV that Tennant basically beat DeLong on name recognition.  I think it should also be noted that not only is she known but she is well liked.  She seems sincere when she talks with voters and I think that helped widen the margin of her victory despite being outspent by a very large margin.  

2)I recognize that Obama stating he wants a new kind of politics is appealing but he can only do so much to this effect. As I mentioned above, he needs someone that is willing to throw punches as his VP or the Republicans will frame the issues for this election like they always seem to do.

Also, the number one priority of any effective leader is one's ability to build a broad coalition. Clinton would bring the largest coalition of traditional working class Democrats. This group of people cannot be left out of the New Democratic Party that Obama is building and if Hillary is their horse then Obama should bring her on board.

Finally, Hillary and Obama share 95% of their policy positions. She is actually more of a policy wonk than Obama, who tends to discuss the conceptual side of issues. His ability to speak of an issue and her ability to speak to it would be the Dems best chance to win a large mandate and bring needed change.

[ Parent ]
one more thing about clinton... (4.00 / 2)
I can certainly understand the anti-Clinton sentiment reflected in the comments above, but I think we have to view this from the standpoint of the Clinton supporters.  Tonight I heard a poll that showed over 60% of Democrats want Obama to ask Clinton to be his VP.  

Obama might be on his way to the nomination but let us not forget how strong an opponent Hillary Clinton has been. Millions of Americans (Democrats) have cast votes for her in this primary and, just as many of you have negative feelings toward her, Clinton supporters have built up negative feelings toward Obama- perhaps to an even larger degree based on the exit polls. Adversarial politics have created this animosity between the camps and I think the best way to erase it is to put Hillary and her baggage on the ticket.

[ Parent ]
Tennant (4.00 / 2)
I hope I didn't come off sounding like the only reason Natalie Tennant won was because people know who she is.  Jeremiah is right.  She is also well liked.  I've had conversations with her on several occasions and she is delightful, intelligent and sincere.  I very much look forward to her being the next SOS.
[ Parent ]
Tennant (4.00 / 2)
I agree with you PDAWV and I think the SOS Office might just be a stepping stone for her.  Could we possibly have a Tennant vs Ireland guv's race in 2012?
[ Parent ]
Room to celebrate... (4.00 / 5)
I'll join you in your joy over Mr. Maynard getting "Spiked"! One might hope his defeat will discourage Daddy Coalbucks wannabes from trying to buy future elections, but the cynical part of my mind is afraid it will just make them all sneakier... Look for "Citizens for Truth, Jobs, Progress, Freedom, John Wayne and Mom's Apple Pie" to run millions of dollars' worth of TV ads, next time!
The AG might be a covert Blankenship's next target (4.00 / 2)
I am worried about these covert groups as well, especially since the courts gave some wiggle room for these snakes in the political grass in that Citizens for Truth case.  Look for the Chamber and Blankenship to target AG McGraw this election in what will probably be the most contested statewide contest in WV this cycle.
[ Parent ]
Joe DeLong made a HUGE mistake (4.00 / 1)
We in the Northern Panhandle often feel underrepresented in Charleston. The last Northern Panhandle Governor was Arch Moore (and look how that turned out). Though Governor Wise was certainly mindful and considerate of us (I miss him very much), Governor Manchin has largely ignored us. We needed someone like Joe Delong from Hancock County remain as Majority Leader. I even spoke to Delegate DeLong after he filed his candidacy mentioning my belief that he should remain in the House for the good of the Northern Panhandle. I think he may have learned his lesson. Perhaps by some fluke, Delegate Swartzmiller or the other Democratic Candidate for the 1st House District (Mr. Manypenny) would choose to withdraw and Mr. DeLong could replace one of them on the November ballot. I know that's asking a lot, but the Wheeling Tunnel is an excellent example of how the Manchin Administration has failed the Northern Panhandle.
WV DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY BREAKDOWN | 16 comments
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WVa Democrats
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