West Virginia Media Market Map (with Congressional Districts)

Return on Investment at ex-poblano's 538 (4.00 / 2)

Back on the 29th I noticed WV made it into the Top 15 at 1.7. Today the 31st WV is at 14 in Return on Investment at 1.5.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com

WV has a lemon yellow in the Tipping Point map, but still does not make it into the Top 15 here.

Tipping Point States' are those states that tip the outcome of the election from one candidate to the other. In each simulation run, the states are lined up from best to worst for each candidate. The states are marked off sequentially until the candidate reaches 270 electroal votes. The state responsible for putting the candidate over the top to 270 electoral votes is the tipping point state for that simulation run.

Nate says this is sort of a Return on Investment is ratio that by itself does not mean much, but can be used for comparison across the country if you assume that advertising is related to population.

However, it is not necessarily the case that the states with the highest Tipping Point number will represent the best return on investment for the candidate. While Pennsylvania is more likely to swing the election than Montana, it is also many times more expensive. Of course, a campaign will still want to invest more in Pennsylvania than it does in Montana in the aggregate. But which state is better on a dollar-per-dollar basis?

NFTT: Support My Team or I Will Dance

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by: CA Berkeley WV @ Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 18:23:00 PM UTC

538 a great site... (0.00 / 0)

Alas, W.Va. is so rarely polled it is really difficult to know what is happening here. Poblano does a great job of making an educated guess with his model.

Nate/Poblano's model has been predicting Obama's win probability in W.Va. around 20% lately... it had gone down as low as 10-15% and has also been as high as 25%.

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by: Clem Guttata @ Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 19:59:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]