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I've never denied racism won't play some role in how some people vote, but I believe it's been overblown, not just in Appalachia but nationally. And the constant scapegoating of Appalachia as "too racist" to vote for an African American could certainly become a self-fulfilling prophecy by leading people to ignore the real reasons why Sen. Hillary Clinton succeeded in Appalachia. If Barack Obama campaigns here, which he really didn't do in the primary (getting outspent 3-to-1 and outstumped 10-to-1 is a big reason why he did not do well here in the primary) he'll win here.
But whether he wins or loses here will have many reasons and not the superficial ones claimed by those who stereotype Appalachia.
No doubt the unpretentious, politically incorrect Mr. Biden will make a strong impression on white, working-class voters. The only hitch in this plan is that there's plenty of reason to think that Mr. Obama's race is not the insurmountable detriment to his candidacy that a lot of anxious observers believe it is.
The theory that race is holding back Mr. Obama's candidacy rests on a pretty simple premise. Adherents argue that the Democratic candidate ought to be effortlessly leading by double digits in the polls at this point - and that his failure to do so can only be explained by latent racism among older voters.
After all, this thinking goes, the Republican president suffers from abysmal approval ratings, and even half-witted voters should be able to see that Mr. Obama is a superior candidate to Mr. McCain, were their views not clouded by race.
These are flawed assumptions, however. While it's entirely possible that Mr. Obama's race is costing him some support, it's also true that the electorate that voted in the last two presidential elections was almost symmetrically divided between the two parties. It would defy the laws of politics if, at this early stage of the campaign, moderate Republicans and conservative independents were to reject Mr. McCain (a candidate many of them preferred back in 2000) simply because they don't like George W. Bush.
snip
It would be naïve to suggest that race won't figure in the election. But the danger for Democrats is that dark prophesies of prejudice could be self-fulfilling.
Ever since 2000, a lot of so-called progressives have proudly displayed a healthy contempt for less-educated white voters who cast ballots in defiance of their "economic self-interest," as Thomas Frank argued in "What's the Matter With Kansas?" (The widespread acceptance of Mr. Frank's thesis is how John Kerry largely escaped the scorn that is ritually visited upon losing Democratic presidential nominees; the members of his party directed their exasperation at the voters instead.) But surely caricaturing a large subset of voters as ignorant has made those voters even less inclined to pull the lever for the Democrats this time around. All this talk about racism isn't likely to help.
Unfortunately that exact caricaturing is what has taken place on some of the big blogs when it comes to Appalachia.
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