Hillary Clinton stumping for Obama in nearby Pikeville Kentucky! Oh please come to W. Virginia too!

Amen to that! (4.00 / 3)

I'll get on my knees and beg if I have to.  Just let me change pants.  These ones are nice.

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by: PDAWV @ Sun Sep 21, 2008 at 12:16:39 PM UTC

McCain's up by 18 over Barack in KY as of 9/15-9/17... (1.00 / 1)

according to data from Research 2000, whose polling numbers are used by RealClearPolitics. Those are post-Palin numbers. The last Rasmussen numbers for Kentucky showed a "mere" nine-point lead for McCain on 7/29 (pre-Paleolithic, of course).

If Research 2000's polling is at all valid, then I question the validity of the American Research Group's findings that McCain is clinging to a four-point lead.

And, yes, I know Rasmussen gave McCain a relatively slender 8-point lead back in early June. But what was notable about that poll was that both candidates' WV unfavorables were off the charts. And that Rasmussen data was pre-Palin. Look, bring her to WV, put her on a four-wheeler with a 30.06 and dressed in a camo suit and McCain carries here by 10 at least.

Here are my questions: who is American Research Group and how credible are they? I can't find that RealClearPolitics uses them in their factoring of the averages of the major polls.

Here's my concern: that WV Barack workers are wasting their time here. I've long argued the ones in northern tier border counties should be working in Ohio/Pennsylvania and the ones in eastern panhandle/southern border counties should be working in Virginia.

Today, my "boss" (ie, person I'm married to who is a county Democratic chair in WV) is canvassing/registering voters for Barack in Roanoke. I'm working three days a week in Harrisonburg, VA.

I've said from day one that WV is McCain's to lose, not Barack's to win. My ground zero sense in rural WV is that things have improved...some...for Obama since the May primary, but he just doesn't have the demographic to carry here, especially post-Palin.

Sorry. I know how much good WV Democrats and WV progressives want to believe that efforts here for Barack are meaningful but, please, let's keep our eyes on the ball.  

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by: benjaminwalter @ Sun Sep 21, 2008 at 15:23:19 PM UTC

Your "concern" is noted (4.00 / 2)

You totally ignore the state pollster Blankenship Enterprises that showed Obama down by 5 just before the ARG poll showed him down by 4.


When a man embarks upon a crime, he is morally guilty of any other crime which may spring from it. Sherlock Holmes.

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by: Carnacki @ Sun Sep 21, 2008 at 16:15:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah, and your "quotes" around concern are noted, too.. (1.00 / 1)

Blankenship is a Charleston firm not taken into account by anyone nationally that I know of.

Who are they and what is their polling methodology? What's there database? Why is there a reason to believe this isn't cherry-picked polling data? Did they poll select South Hills Charleston precincts? Couple of others in Cheat Lake, northern panhandle, maybe one or two around Beckley?

On the ground in rural West Virginia, this info doesn't jibe with day-to-day reality...at all.

And it doesn't answer my question. Who are American Research Group?

My suspicion is you're--what a shock!--trying to make WV demographics out to be something they aren't. A fertile blue-state battleground.

Kerry carried exactly one WV county in '04, when WV was, for an inexplicably long and wasteful period of time, a "battleground state."

That county was Logan.

Quit BS-ing people. And if mendacity isn't the issue, remove the tinted glasses.

Southern WV isn't going to go for Obama.

Without that, what chance does he have here?

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by: benjaminwalter @ Sun Sep 21, 2008 at 17:21:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Your "concern" is noted again (0.00 / 0)

So why don't you take it, polish it, turn it sideways and shove it up your candy ass?

You don't know who American Research Group is yet you want your comment taken seriously? You did squat of your own research on polls in the state yet you want to pretend you know what's going on?

I'd give you a serious response but you're not shown any inclination that you're worth it.


When a man embarks upon a crime, he is morally guilty of any other crime which may spring from it. Sherlock Holmes.

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by: Carnacki @ Sun Sep 21, 2008 at 19:38:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I concur with Carnacki (4.00 / 3)

and will add that you are wrong on another point. Kerry won more than just Logan county. In fact he won 9 counties in WV, which isn't impressive. Nonetheless, it proves you know less than you think.

It is not likely Obama will win WV. However, the lack of effort is extremely frustrating when you consider not many in WV people like McCain either. Furthermore, economic have always been important in WV. It is a message that Dems win on in WV. When campaigns are about national security or especially cultural issues, we'll side with Republicans. If it is about the economy we'll side with Democrats. Obviously, the economy is the biggest issue now and McCain is probably the worst candidate to the Republicans could have nominated. He only knows about reforming government and fighting and starting wars.  

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by: Randolph Clark @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 21:16:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

well said Randolph Clark (4.00 / 3)

This is a strange year... you can make good arguments for why neither McCain nor Obama can win W.Va.... yet obviously one of them has to.

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by: Clem Guttata @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 22:31:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks Randolph Clark (4.00 / 3)

And while we might not win, I'd rather go down swinging for my fellow West Virginians. And how would someone ever know if we could win here if we don't try?


When a man embarks upon a crime, he is morally guilty of any other crime which may spring from it. Sherlock Holmes.

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by: Carnacki @ Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 00:19:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

hmmmm.... (4.00 / 3)

It's great to hear of your activism.

Around here we're more believers in building up the party in our own state. We've not given up hope on turning the state blue at every level.

We've esp. not given up on electing Dems. to Congress, Attorney General, and the State Supreme Court. Speaking of keeping your eye on the ball, you might want to think about how keeping Obama from getting blown out in your local precinct will help those other Democrats on the same ticket.

Last I checked, Southern West Virginia was less than 1/3 of the W.Va. population. There's plenty of ways for Obama to win the state without carrying WV-03. Besides, there are some yellow dog Democratic Party counties down there.

There's no big love for McCain and just 'cause your some of your neighbors want to shag Palin doesn't mean they want her running the country. Her luster is fading fast.

Personally, I'm really tired of people talking down polls they don't like. This being your first two comments on this site, there's no way to know if you're that kind of person or not, but so far you're not off to a very good track record.

If you bothered to a do a little bit of research you'd learn: ARG is a middle of the road pollster in terms of track record.  From what I can tell, Blankenship is as well. The fact they both came in with similar results makes them hard to reject out of hand.

Just because these two polls don't fit in with your preconceived notion that your time is better spent in Virginia, that's no reason to come here and tell us that we are wasting our time. Again, you might want to think about helping out in your local precinct to make sure McGraw wins and we get two Dems on the Supreme Court (the rest of the races in WV-03 look pretty solid). Besides, if you don't take a stand in your neighborhood now, when will you?!?

If you're really on the same side here, you might want to rethink your strategy for saying hello. You'll find you'll get a much warmer welcome around here when you don't take a dump in the middle of the living room.

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by: Clem Guttata @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 01:28:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Virginia: Obama up by 6 (4.00 / 3)

So if we're going to interpret what is going on here based NOT on polling data within West Virginia, but a neighboring state, Kentucky, what should we do when the other Virginia shows Obama ahead by 6?

When a man embarks upon a crime, he is morally guilty of any other crime which may spring from it. Sherlock Holmes.

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by: Carnacki @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 18:56:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Shag? MILF? (4.00 / 2)

The British even have a different phrase for kissing
Snogging!
Sounds dirtier than you think as an American if you never heard it before.

MILF
Moosehunter I'd Like to Fathom

NFTT: Support My Team or I Will Dance

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by: CA Berkeley WV @ Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 05:11:57 AM UTC

[ Parent ]