Amazing ARG W.Va. poll: O50 M42

I've checked (4.00 / 2)

and double checked the cross-tabs.  They actually use less Democrats (55%) and more Republicans (35%) in their survey than what was the real voter turnout in the 2004 election (58-30).  This is likely to be real and not an outlier.

Thanks to everyone who is working so hard to turn WV BLUE!

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by: PDAWV @ Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 18:47:56 PM UTC

LV-model (4.00 / 1)

Thanks for checking that. I was wondering if their party weighting was reasonable for a likely voter model.

If I remember correctly, the voter registration numbers have increased quite a bit more for Dems than Republicans since 2004, so the percentage of Dem turnout is more likely to go up  than down.

My gut feel is Obama's lead may be overstated in this poll, but the state is indeed a "toss-up" as long as W.Va. voters are highly concerned about the economy.

Obama's performance in the debate along with Palin's reputation tanking over the last two weeks make a large swing like this seem possible to me. Dems now have good reasons to "come home" and vote for Obama, not McCain.

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by: Clem Guttata @ Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 19:19:55 PM UTC

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