Swing State Project on WV-02

by: Clem Guttata

Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 07:16:02 AM EST

There was no question Obama suffered from an "Appalachia problem" in the primaries, a key factor which led SSP to conclude that Democrat Anne Barth would face a seriously uphill climb in this district. And that's on top of everything else staring Barth down in WV-02: A pretty popular long-term incumbent (with a famous name), a conservative lean to the region, and a late start. (Barth was a last-minute replacement.)

But now, Obama is polling far better here than we originally imagined he might, suggesting that WV still believes in its ancestral Democratic roots. He almost certainly won't win the state, but his Pollster average is on par with Kerry's take, and many individual polls have shown the race here closer. And Barth, who has raised pretty well herself, has seen a late infusion of about half a mil from the DCCC. Shelley Moore Capito only got 57% against an underfunded challenger in 2006; she's still the favorite to hang on, but she could very well lose this time.

Anne Barth definitely has a shot on Tuesday. There's even a scenario where Obama can pull off an upset win here: if Republican voters stay home and the rest of the West Virginia electorate jumps on the national Obama band wagon.

Yes, we can!