West Virginia and Presidential Politics

by: Clem Guttata

Mon Feb 23, 2009 at 08:38:10 AM EST

He reviews each congressional district where Obama did worse than either Kerry or Gore. There's only one in W.Va.

West Virginia

WV-03 Rahall (D): Kerry 46%, Obama 42%

West Virginia generally sees pretty good Democratic performance, at the federal and statewide levels, but not this year. That shouldn't change too much, and the state should still favor Democrats at most levels (if not the top level).

Here's a weird quirk: the West Virginia district which most strongly supported Obama is held by a Republican, Shelley Moore Capito. Obama got 44% in WV-02, Capito's district.

The entire diary is worth a read. Here is his summary:

So, every district in the country in which Kerry outperformed Gore Obama is in either McCain's home state, Kerry's home state, Appalachia, the South, or NY-09.

[snip]

As for the South and Appalachia, not all Democrats are doomed in these areas (though some are trending away from the party) and not all parts of these states were hostile to Obama (who won Florida, and surged in Texas).

Two of the reasons most often cited for Obama slippage are racism and general demographic shifts away from the Democratic Party. Four years of a reasonably successful Obama administration should do quite a bit to counter some of the former, so hopefully the numbers in 2012 should give us an indicator of where, and to what extent, the latter was a factor.

Familiarity is another strong factor in Appalachia--an inherent fear of change and discomfort with anything new. Some district visits by a successful Pres. Obama will go a long way toward boosting his re-election numbers.