Our Environment: Peak Oil, Coal, Liquid Coal, and Coal

by: Clem Guttata

Fri Jun 15, 2007 at 14:14:27 PM EDT

Peak Oil: Have you heard of Peak Oil? Watch the video for an brief introduciton. It's one of those crazy ideas that just happens to be, well, looking (unfortunately), not so crazy. The video is of King Hubbert (yes, that's his name) who correctly predicted (within one year) Peak Oil for US48 before it occurred. Well, this week Business Week (of all places) has the news. With a hat-tip to Jerome a Paris, here's what we learn in Business Week:

Peak oil refers to the point at which world oil production plateaus before beginning to decline as depletion of the world's remaining reserves offsets ever-increased drilling. Some experts argue that we're already there, and that we won't exceed by much the daily production high of 84.5 million barrels first reached in 2005. If so, global production will bump along near these levels for years before beginning an inexorable decline.

What would that mean? Alternatives are still a decade away from meeting incremental demand for oil. With nothing to fill the gap, global economic growth would slow, stop, and then reverse; international tensions would soar as nations seek access to diminishing supplies, enriching autocratic rulers in unstable oil states; and, unless other sources of energy could be ramped up with extreme haste, the world could plunge into a new Dark Age. Even as faltering economies burned less oil, carbon loading of the atmosphere might accelerate as countries turn to vastly dirtier coal.

What does the author recommend?

The reality is that it will be here much sooner for the U.S.—in the form of peak oil exports. Since we import nearly two-thirds of the oil we consume, global oil available for export should be our bigger concern. Fast-growing domestic consumption in oil-exporting nations and increasing appetites by big importers such as China portend tighter supplies available to the U.S., unless world production rises rapidly. But output has stalled. Call it de facto peak oil or peak oil lite. It means the U.S. is entering an age when it will have to scramble to maintain existing import levels.

[snip]

There are many things we in the U.S. can do (and should have been doing) other than the present policy of crossing our fingers. If an oil tax makes sense from a climate change perspective, it seems doubly worthy if it extends supplies. Boosting efficiency and scaling up alternatives must also be a priority. And, recognizing that nations will turn to cheap coal (recently, 80% of growth in coal use has come from China), more work is needed to defang this fuel, which produces more carbon dioxide per ton than any other energy source.

Coal: Ken Ward, Jr. has the news, Lori at Truth & Progress has the analysis: "Coal operators cannot evade the Clean Water Act by building sediment-treatment ponds just downstream from strip mine valley fills, a federal judge ruled Wednesday."

Liquid Coal: Lots of people are learning about West Virginia's coal mining problems as part of the current Energy Bill debate. Thank you shadiawood for highlighting Marsh Fork Elementary School during yesterday's press conference. Congratulations on your press coverage: Washington Post (great pictures!), CNS (great article), UPI (ditto).

Coal: How long until we reach Peak Coal, the point at which over half of the world's coal supply has been mined? One recent estimate is 2025.