WVa Primary Election Day

The Rain Effect (0.00 / 0)

Anyone care to offer their analysis of the steady rains we're supposed to receive throughout both Panhandles and North Central West Virginia? How will this impact the Mollohan vs. Oliverio race?

Another question... has the WV Secretary of State's website been updated since the 2008 election for days such as today? I sure hope so.  

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by: WV26003 @ Tue May 11, 2010 at 12:21:26 PM UTC

my guess: weather a non-factor (0.00 / 0)

First off, I'll say I have no strong opinion on this question. I'd like to know a lot more about likely voter models for each candidate as well as what each one is doing today for field operations to give a better answer. But, as you've asked, I'll take a wild-a$$ guess at an answer...

I don't think the weather will have any impact on the M vs. O race. There's nothing I've seen about that race that makes me think that lower or higher turnout will be a strong favor for one candidate or the other.

It being a non-presidential year, a primary election isn't going to have a lot of turn-out no matter what the weather. There's highly motivated and lightly motivated voters for (or against) both candidates.

I've gotten the impression that more and more people are early voting each election that it is offered (I know it's what I usually do). That makes election day weather less an issue.

In a high profile race like WV-03 where there has been a lot of negative campaigning, that usually depresses turnout. In a two-person race, negative campaign ads usually drop favorability of both candidates which makes voters less likely to vote.

If Mollohan has invested in field operations and/or his traditional allies like unions are doing so, than a really low turnout election will favor him as an incumbent with more resources. But, nothing stopped Oliverio from making a similar investment. Oliverio raised enough money and had enough volunteer support to make a strong field model possible. Again, I don't know enough about what each candidate has done to say one way or the other.

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by: Clem Guttata @ Tue May 11, 2010 at 21:13:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tough choice: Matthew Barney and Ken Mattson. (0.00 / 0)

Both Matthew Barney and Ken Mattson would be excellent on the Berkeley County Council, and it is too bad I had to pick between them, but only one per the district could be selected.

When a man embarks upon a crime, he is morally guilty of any other crime which may spring from it. Sherlock Holmes.

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by: Carnacki @ Tue May 11, 2010 at 16:19:52 PM UTC

. (0.00 / 0)

Who am I supposed to be rooting for in the most expensive race in the state, the Hootie vs. the Blowhard rematch in the 6th District's Democratic primary?

On the one side, you have Blankenship ally, Greg "Hootie" Smith. On the other you have Sen. Truman Chafin, another rightwing fake Democrat, who says protecting the environment is as pointless as mosquitos. Both of these guys are wretched choices for voters.

I hate to see a Blankenship pal get in, and the UMWA is backing Chafin, which makes him marginally better.

But if Chafin gets the boot, the silver lining is we would get a scenario where Democrats have to pick a long-needed replacement for majority leader.

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by: heath_harrison @ Tue May 11, 2010 at 23:31:33 PM UTC