| By Clem Guttata
I am both surprised and disappointed by this outcome. My biggest disappointment is not that a long-time incumbent lost a primary--overall, I think our party is stronger when we have contested elections--but that he lost it for all the wrong reasons.
Fourteen-term U.S. Congressman Alan Mollohan has lost his primary battle against state senator Mike Oliverio for the Democratic nomination in the First District.
Oliverio had spent much of the campaign attacking Mollohan's record and ethics, and that apparently resonated with Democratic voters, as Oliverio took an early lead when the vote totals started coming in on Tuesday night. That trend continued throughout the evening, and with all precinct reporting, Oliverio held a 12-percentage point lead.
Heavily aided by the conservative agenda of deep-pocketed media moguls (the Ogden/Nutting and Rease outlets), Oliverio has succeeded in running against a reliable Democrat incumbent.
To win the trust of West Virginia first district voters and earn a position in Congress, Mike Oliverio now needs run for something.
Updated: So, why did Rep. Alan Mollohan lose?
Here's what I think. There's lots of reasons.
Added: First off, If I had thought Rep. Mollohan was as corrupt as Oliverio and the press made him out to be, I would have wanted to vote him out, too.
1) Voters are angry because the economy in WV-01 still sucks
2) Unemployment is WV-01 is unacceptably high -- Congress bailed out banks, but isn't doing anything about 10% unemployment.
3) A politicized Bush DOJ left a time bomb that finally exploded. Even though every investigation was closed, Mollohan was tainted by further innuendo. Over the years, those expensive legal fees drained campaign coffers, too.
4) Having no opponent in 2008, Mollohan didn't have the campaign apparatus established that he needed to survive a close campaign.
5) Oliverio had enough money to get his message out. Unpaid media was very kind to him in building a distorted view of incumbent--this is rare situation for challenger vs. incumbent, esp. in a primary.
6) Where was Obama/OFA? Dean's 50 state strategy was much better at building capacity in every district. Obama/Kaine deserve some blame here, too.
7) Mollohan's votes this cycle were not the reason. Mollohan could have voted the same was as Republican Rep. Shelly Moore Capito (WV-02) on every vote and Oliverio could have still run the same campaign and received the same help from conservative quarters.
Another one from the comments 8) "WVinians are oddly susceptible to RW talking points." Rep. Mollohan has reaped a bitter harvest sowed by fellow West Virginia politicians. One reason that West Virginians are so susceptible to right wing talking points is because our own Democratic party leaders (see: Gov. Manchin) are prone to using them when they view coal interests as endangered. Live by federal government bashing, die by federal government bashing.
Update from Carnacki:
John Cole at Balloon-Juice has a good take on the corner that Oliverio has painted himself into.
There really isn't a whole lot there to fire up the Democratic base, and I just don't see how he tacks left heading into a general election. As it is, a lot of people in the liberal/progressive wing might look at this general election as a race between two Republicans. Again, I have never personally met the man, so I have no "feel" for him, but I know people who say he is a decent fellow.
snip
Whatever happens, it is going to be a close race. Any time before the last few years when the national GOP went completely teabag insane and drove me from their ranks, and I would have voted for McKinley without a second thought. I don't think I can vote for a Republican and give John Boehner and those clowns any power whatsoever, which really is a shame, because my gut tells me McKinley is a decent man. Having said that, Mike Oliverio has his work cut out for him to get me to hold my nose and vote for him. Considering I don't know much about him except for the things I don't like (the anti-choice stance, the anti-cap and trade, the willingness to sabotage leadership before even being elected), maybe there is something there I can rally around. I guess I have no other choice.
Supporting Oliverio because we feel we have no other choice is hardly a way to turn out the vote. It'll be interesting to see if Oliverio reaches out to this blog and to other Democrats or if he'll just try to appeal to right wingers who are going to toss him aside for a real Republican like McKinley. |