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Weekend Open Thread

by: Clem Guttata

Sun Jul 25, 2010 at 09:13:14 AM EDT


By Clem Guttata

A few thoughts this fine sunny morning...

Campaigns

* Charlie Cook's reality-based view of why the DCCC is still confident about holding onto a House majority in Nov. (1) There aren't that many seats up for grabs, (2) Dems have done well in special elections and (3) the GOP doesn't have the $$ it needs to compete in enough races.

* Ballot order matters, but only a little bit. I think Ken Hechler and Mac Warner were the biggest winners and John Raese the biggest loser in the ballot order lottery for WV-SEN special election. What do you think?

DEMOCRAT:
               Ken Hechler
               Sheirl Fletcher
               Joe Manchin, III

REPUBLICAN:
               Thomas Ressler
               Harry C. Bruner, Jr.
               Frank T. Kubic
               John R. Raese
               Daniel Scott Rebich
               Kenneth A. Culp
               Albert Howard
               Lynette Kennedy McQuain
               Scott H. Williams
               Mac Warner

MOUNTAIN:
               Jesse Johnson

Climate

* It's really hot out. It's been a summer full of really hot. I fear for how many summer sequels are ahead in the upcoming decades--today's weather is annoying and inconvenient, but if this becomes a new normal it spells all sorts of trouble.

* Just like Duncan Black says: "I'm sure there are very good reasons a stupid hippy like me can't understand why the government can't directly hire thousands of people to go knock on doors and paint roofs white, but I have no idea what they are."

* In more positive news, here's a really encouraging development about using solar power as baseload electric power.

Conflagration

* Mitch Albom gets it exactly right on the Sherrod fiasco: "If a house is burned to the ground ... first you blame the guy who started the fire, right?"

What's new in your hollar?

Rock Lake, West Virginia Panorama
Rock Lack, WV by respres

Clem Guttata :: Weekend Open Thread
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Charlie Cook (4.00 / 1)
Considering how Charlie Cook generally puts Republicans spin on things, it's telling. Still "conventional wisdom" will continue to talk of a GOP landslide and too many feckless Dems will fall for it. Facts still have a known liberal bias.

When a man embarks upon a crime, he is morally guilty of any other crime which may spring from it. Sherlock Holmes.

pivot (4.00 / 1)
I think Cook is trying to cover his bases and is starting to pivot to a more reality-based position on the Nov. elections.

He's gotten his attention for the grandiose GOP landslide predictions, now he'll slowly start walking it back by saying the GOP failed to capitalize on their potential openings.


[ Parent ]
If WV-01 is one of the most vulnerable then Dems are in good shape (4.00 / 1)
Mollohan might have been vulnerable, but now that Oliverio won the primary, I think WV-01 is safely for the Dems.

WV-GOP is broke and in disarray, Manchin is going to have some coattails, and Oliverio is a strong campaigner with national DNC support. I think Oliverio wins by 10 pts.

Plus, Massey will pour his money into his buddy Spike's race. It might have worked in Benjamin vs. McGraw as Supreme Court Justice, but McGraw had more baggage with Independent voters and won a tough primary with Judge Jim Rowe. It's much different for Rahall.

Dems are 14-3 in Special Elections. I'll take that record.

In a good conversation everyone speaks.  In a great conversation some even listen.


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