| By Clem Guttata
* If you haven't voted yet, please vote on Tuesday. I urge everyone in West Virginia to vote a straight party Democratic Party ticket. In the congressional races, the choices are starkly clear. A Republican victory makes it that much harder for future progressive policy advocacy.
For example, if Raese wins the discourse shifts to arguments about whether whether climate change is real and if work place safety and environmental regulations should exist at all.
If Manchin wins, at least we're starting from a more rational place to fight our battles.
* This is one of those years when I really wished we had instant runoff voting. Instead of voting for the candidate whose views were closest to mine, I was stuck voting for the least worst option with a chance to win.
* If Joe Manchin pulls off a victory, one of the many people he can thank is Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito. In a year when Republicans are picking up seats all over the country, the weak WV GOP bench is a major liability for WV GOP chances.
Since her election in 2000, Capito has worked hard to make sure she's the only viable state GOP candidate. Even in this election, with her best chance ever to welcome aboard fellow Republicans to the WV delegation in DC, Capito has been MIA. If Raese or McKinley squeak out a victory, it'll be no thanks to her.
* Here's the Ultimate Hour-by-Hour, District-by-District Election Guide by Nate Silver. And, another viewing guide for Tuesday night -- Control of the house Bellwethers 2010: An hour-by-hour guide.
* The most famous political science model for predicting US House election outcomes says the Republicans are expected (based on the economy and historic conditions like party in power) to win 45 seats. Nate Silver's current model estimates a Republican margin of 55 seats--not far off. As Atrios recently put it, "I think the ignored true narrative of this election season is that as horrible as the economy is, it's a miracle the Dems are seeming to do as well as they are and especially that Obama remains relatively popular." (We'll see on Wednesday is that's really true.)
* What's going to happen tomorrow? There's a good argument to expect the unexpected. That's what usually happens. There are good reasons why the Democrats can beat the polls and hold the House and also good reasons why the Republicans can do even better than expected.
The outcome of WV-01 will be one of the indications of how the national wind is blowing. I have no idea how it, or the composition of the House, will end up.
The only predictions I'm prepared to make for tomorrow are that Manchin, Capito, and Rahall will all win. No major changes will happen in the composition of the WV state house.
Whatever the election outcome, there's a rocky road ahead.
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