| Oliverio's apparent loss ties in well with the message related to Gov. Joe Manchin's win in the Senate race: while the West Virginia Democratic Party is a big tent, Democrats cannot be taken for granted. Manchin's resurgence in the polls occurred after he stopped swinging so far to the right and returned to his Democratic roots at the debate and on the stump and that led to his solid win over the well-funded Florida Republican John Raese.
At the statehouse, Democrats gained two seats in the Senate so it is now 28 Democrats to 6 Republicans, and continue to hold a solid majority, 63-37, in the House of Delegates despite losing six seats. The Democrats also won the important Supreme Court race with Thomas McHugh defeating John Yoder.
While I would have liked to have seen McKinley defeated in WV-01, in no small part because his past behavior has the potential to cause even more serious damage to West Virginia's already tarnished national reputation, the fact that Oliverio and Mollohan votes exceed McKinley's gives me confidence McKinley will not hold the seat for long.
That is, if McKinley is even in WV-01 when redistricting is done. The current shape of WV-02, the longest district geographically east of the Mississippi, is in need of redistricting and with a governor and statehouse solidly in the hands of Democrats, it would be good to see it redistricted in a fashion that makes more sense. Perhaps Rep. Shelley Moore Capito and McKinley might find themselves in the same district. That would be an exciting primary considering McKinley has embraced the tea party end of the political spectrum and Capito, as right wing as she votes, touts herself as a moderate who is pro-choice or pro-life depending upon her audience.
For all the national Republican tidal wave, the fact Republicans in West Virginia did not do better goes back to something we've said for years: the West Virginia GOP whether they like it or not is really all about protecting Capito's career. She's done a good job of keeping potential Republican challengers down so that she does not have competition. Capito is probably as happy about Florida Republican John Raese's loss as anyone in the Democratic Party and as disappointed by McKinley's win though she might say all the right things in public.
For many reasons, the spotlight will be on Capito the next two years. She could always claim her back-bencher status in Republican controlled Congresses before was due to her lack of seniority. But now that Republicans are in the majority again, Capito's ineffectiveness cannot be hidden behind her lack of seniority. West Virginia Republicans also will be watching her closely because redistricting and her self-proclaimed moderate views will make her a target for those seeking right-wing ideological purity.
Overall it was a good, though not great night, for West Virginia Democrats. We weathered the national storm well and brighter days can be seen ahead. |
