West Virginia Congressional Redistricting Proposals

What about an Ohio River Scenario (4.00 / 1)

I've wondered about something similar to your last scenario, but with Cabell County connected with the 1st District.  There are a lot of similarities between Wheeling, Parkersburg, and Huntington as river towns.

If you swapped Kanawha and Cabell Counties in that scenario what else would need to happen to even out the population?

You could have SMC running in the south which would make her more vulnerable as well.

In a good conversation everyone speaks.  In a great conversation some even listen.

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by: Wabi-Sabi @ Tue Nov 23, 2010 at 22:26:08 PM UTC

like this? (4.00 / 1)

Kanawha County has a much larger population than Cabel. The swap is more like K for Cabel + Wayne + Clay/Braxton/Nicolas/Webster.

In terms of sheer size, I'm not partial to how sprawling the Hancock to Webster to Wayne districts ends up. It's not as bad as the current CD2, but not as tidy as some other options.

In mapping out scenarios I really haven't paid all that much attention to where it puts the incumbents. But, if you're taking a pure partisan standpoint, isn't the usual tactic to pit incumbents of the same party against each other, instead of two senior incumbents of competing parties?

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by: Clem Guttata @ Wed Nov 24, 2010 at 00:30:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks for adding this option (0.00 / 0)

These are really great to see.  It will be an interesting option.  I think the incumbents will work to protect themselves.  

The Democratic legislature could try to pit Capito against Rahall, but there's no guarantee Rahall wins and they would probably try to carve out something between McKinley and Capito that strengthens Rahall moving forward.

In a good conversation everyone speaks.  In a great conversation some even listen.

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by: Wabi-Sabi @ Wed Nov 24, 2010 at 04:33:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

NorthWest-SouthEast Scenario (EP3) (4.00 / 1)

I think this would make the most interesting race.

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by: MadAnne @ Wed Nov 24, 2010 at 00:40:10 AM UTC

great post (4.00 / 1)

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by: Jeremiah @ Wed Nov 24, 2010 at 03:55:03 AM UTC

what's possible (4.00 / 1)

The legislature is never to going to radically alter Rahall's district - nor should they.

The last scenario "North East-West Scenario (NP2)" would be a good change, that could reasonably happen. You could tweak it some by putting Clay & Braxton back in the green district and putting Mason in the Rahall district - that would make the green district a little more Democratic.

It would be fun to watch McKinley & Capito have to run against each other. I would expect it would force one of them to run for higher office in 2012.

The blue district being an open seat would be interesting too. It is similar to the old district that Staggers held. Maybe someone in that family runs for it? Maybe Mollohan takes another stab it - if not there is certainly a strong path to victory for another Dem from North Central to run. It would be tough for a Dem in the EP to beat a North Central Dem in the primary - since there's a higher percentage share of registered Dems in North Central than the EP.

I bet Clark Barnes, Jonathan Miller, Craig Blair, or Sarah Minear would run on the GOP side. Probably would boil down to an east-west fight in the general.

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by: jcsaunders @ Wed Nov 24, 2010 at 14:30:12 PM UTC

jc (4.00 / 2)

I agree with most of what you have to say. I'd point out Craig Blair couldn't win a state senate race on his home turf in a year that overwhelmingly favored Republicans and Jonathan Miller can't even get reappointed to a regional council by an all-Republican board of commissioners because he was too lazy to show up for meetings so he is much too lazy to run for a real election. He's safe in a heavily Republican district filled with voters too stupid beyond words - many of them my in-laws.

When a man embarks upon a crime, he is morally guilty of any other crime which may spring from it. Sherlock Holmes.

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by: Carnacki @ Wed Nov 24, 2010 at 14:45:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

not saying... (4.00 / 1)

that Blair or Miller would make good candidates, but they are both egotistical/ambitious enough to probably want to run. I'm not from the EP - that's just me judging them by how much they spout off in the Charleston papers about everything during the sessions - plus Blair is employed now.

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by: jcsaunders @ Wed Nov 24, 2010 at 18:36:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

population changes 2000 - 2009 (4.00 / 1)

This is not the exact same data used by Dave's Redistricting App, but provides a good picture of why the districts need to be redrawn.

CD     2000 Census	% of Total	Mid-2009 Est.	% of Total	Change
CD 1	 602,545 	33%	 	 597,080 	33%		 -1%
CD 2	 602,243 	33%	 	 639,292 	35%		 6%
CD 3	 603,556 	33%	 	 583,405 	32%		 -3%
TOTAL	 1,808,344 		 	 1,819,777 		  	 1%

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by: Clem Guttata @ Wed Nov 24, 2010 at 15:59:20 PM UTC

regions/counties above 20K population (0.00 / 0)

This will give you an idea of the population changes since 2000 census and the major population areas to balance. With this population estimate, equally balanced districts have 606,592 residents each.

Region	Mid-2009
EP*	195,684 (+28%) Jefferson/Berkeley/Morgan/Hampshire
Kanawha	191,663 (-4%)
NP*	146,035 (-8%) Hancock/Brooke/Ohio/Marshall/Wetzel
Cabell	95,214 (-2%)
Monongalia	90,080 (+10%)
Wood 	86,888 (-1%)
Raleigh	79,187 (0%)
Harrison	68,911 (0%)
Mercer	61,921 (-2%)
Marion	56,706 (0%)
Putnam	55,673 (+8%)
Fayette	46,123 (-3%)
Wayne	41,119 (-4%)
Logan	35,498 (-6%)
Greenbrier	34,527 (0%)
Preston	30,247 (+3%)
Randolph	28,390 (0%)
Jackson	28,067 (0%)
Mineral	27,204 (0%)
Mingo	26,387 (-7%)
Nicholas	26,213 (-1%)
Mason	25,568 (-3%)
Boone	24,709 (-3%)
Upshur	23,806 (+2%)
Wyoming 	23,304 (-9%)
McDowell	22,398 (-18%)
Lincoln	22,147 (0%)

There's another 226,108 in population spread around the remaining 21 counties not listed.

* For map drawing purposes, as long as we stick to county boundaries the 3 traditional EP counties have to be in the same district as Hampshire. Likewise the 4 northern-most panhandle counties and Wetzel.

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by: Clem Guttata @ Wed Nov 24, 2010 at 16:19:29 PM UTC

you'll have to keep Tyler County with Wetzel (0.00 / 0)

Paden City is in both counties; I doubt anyone would want to split it between two congressional districts.

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by: dlwickham @ Thu Nov 25, 2010 at 05:58:36 AM UTC

helpful reminder (0.00 / 0)

Thanks, that's a helpful reminder.

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by: Clem Guttata @ Thu Nov 25, 2010 at 11:00:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

history of districts (4.00 / 1)

A few years ago I put together a history of WV congressional districts.

Here's a video version, too.

The maps are available in our WV Redistricting set on flickr.

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by: Clem Guttata @ Thu Nov 25, 2010 at 11:04:21 AM UTC

process in CA (4.00 / 1)

Pretty amazing... as described at DemConWatch:

This is the outgrowth of Proposition 11, the Voters First Act, passed in 2008. These folks will redraw the state Assembly and Senate districts, as well as the Federal Congressional Districts. To get on the committee, people submitted applications, which others could review and comment on, the applications were culled down to 36 finalists, and yesterday Elaine Howle, State Auditor, used balls in a cage to pick the eight members. Like bingo balls.

The application process required that to move forward, successful applicants needed to have been members of the same political party for the prior five years, and to have voted in at least two of the last three elections. In addition, they, nor their immediate families could NOT, for the prior 10 years:

   * Been appointed to, elected to, or a candidate for a California congressional or state office:
   * Served as an officer, employee, or paid consultant of a California political party or of the campaign committee of a candidate for California congressional or elective state office;
   * Served as an elected or appointed member of a political party central committee in California;
   * Been a registered federal lobbyist;
   * Been a lobbyist registered with the State of California or a California local government;
   * Served as paid California congressional, legislative, or State Board of Equalization staff;
   * Contributed $2,000 or more to any California congressional, state, or local candidate for elective public office in any year.

The reason that only 8 of 14 were chosen was to ensure balance. The bingo balls were separated out based on party, and three Democrats, three Republicans, and two people who didn't belong to those parties were chosen. The people selected were comprised of four Asian Americans, two whites, one Latino and one African American. There are five women and three men. The eight will be required to pick two more Democrats, two more Republicans and two more who belong either to other parties, or decline to state a party.

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by: Clem Guttata @ Sun Nov 28, 2010 at 12:15:35 PM UTC