Hillary Would Win in West Virginia

Go (4.00 / 3)

Hillary!

Down with Capito!

---

by: West Virginia Lover @ Mon Jul 09, 2007 at 09:19:05 AM CDT

WOW! That is great news! I'm pleasantly shocked! (4.00 / 2)

If Hillary is ahead that much think about how much John Edwards would be ahead by if he were to win the Dem nomination, which is really less than 1 percent right now.

And it's just not here in WV.  Even our bordering states Virginia and Kentucky are tossups, and the two states are much more Republican than we are.

That doesn't me we can lay down our guard and quit campaigning though.  One thing I do agree with Republicans on is that the rural less populated Republican strong holds are undercounted.

Heck, if the polls were right in 2004 John Kerry would have been elected president rather easily.

Whether this poll is right or not remains to be seen, but like I said before we need to turn those poll numbers into Democratic votes, or else all the polls in the world would just be a waste of time and money....

---

by: bluemcdowell @ Mon Jul 09, 2007 at 12:44:22 PM CDT

The polls in 2004 (4.00 / 2)

swung back and forth between Kerry and Bush.  The exit polls did not reflect the vote on election day, but the polls that led up to the election showed a general Bush tilt.  I believe there is reason to doubt the results of the 2004 election, but the polls before the election were generally on the money about the result.

I don't buy this Edwards thing.  Here is a guy who can't make the sail to his most natural constituency, the members of the Democratic Party.  How do we expect him to win the general if he can't carry the base?  I like him, but this is his second time out, and this is the second time he has failed (so far) to gain traction.

I think Hillary is our best bet.

Down with Capito!

---

by: West Virginia Lover @ Mon Jul 09, 2007 at 13:29:11 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Guiliani / McCain haven't a chance (4.00 / 3)

The traditional media is slow to catch on to the news... but if you look at fund-raising, and polls in early states like NH and Iowa neither Giuliani or McCain have any real chance of becoming the Republican nominee.

My best guess is that Romney will get the Republican nomination after an intense flirtation with actor-lobbyist-whatever Thompson shows him to be even lazier and even less intellectual than George Bush. [Just wait until America figures out his wife is closer in age to the Bush twins than to Laura.]

Thank you for posting this poll. As encouraging as I find it, I'm taking it with a grain of salt. Those undecided numbers seem rather high for four people with high name recognition. I'd love to see a generic Dem/Rep poll number, too.

---

by: Clem Guttata @ Mon Jul 09, 2007 at 14:27:49 PM CDT

I agree those poll numbers seem high, (4.00 / 2)

but if the election were today (and it clearly--unfortunately--is not), the undecided vote would have to split to the Republican in a decided manner for the Republican to catch up and surpass Hillary.  The sample is small, and I always wonder about random polls like these are.

Down with Capito!

---

by: West Virginia Lover @ Mon Jul 09, 2007 at 15:30:57 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Now that I think of it, I wonder if you have a poll between Mrs. Clinton and Fred Thompson? (0.00 / 0)

While I loved the polls on Rudy G and John McCain, neither of them are likely to be the Republicans' nominee.

I think Fred Thompson is most likely to be the Republicans' nominee for president.  Giuliani, McCain, and even Romney are self-destructing big time now.

And even Thompson hasn't caught on fire like I thought he was going to.  And his connections with Watergate and the Scooter Libby case are not helping either. 

I do think that Thompson would do much much better in the Mountain State than Rudy G, McCain, and Romney.  

For three reasons:

1.  Thompson is a southerner.  I know that sounds silly but W. Virginians tend to almost always favor southerners over northerners especially in the Republican primaries.   The other 3 leading candidates obviously aren't southern.

2.  My fellow evangelicals of course:  the ones I know don't care for Giuliani because he's pro-abortion and pro-gun control (and pro-gun control candidates NEVER win in West Virginia), Romney simply because he's Mormon and those that do consider voting for him aren't fully convinced that he completely supports evangelical positions, and they are ambivalent about McCain because of his negative reputation among the Religious Right, even though he's as socially conservative as one can be and not be supported by my fellow evangelicals.

3.  The Iraq War is still not unpopular here as in most states because of W. Virginia's rich military tradition.  I bet that the Iraq War is more unpopular in least 40 states in the USA if not more.   We can't reach the well-to-do vets.  They're Republican all the way.  

However we can most definitely win the ones who haven't been able to get a job or have been turned down time and time again for disability benefits.

And just the mere mention of Walter Reed hospital brings out anger even among a few Iraq War supportere.

And Thompson is even more supportive of the war than Rudy G, McCain, and Romney. 

I think according to the above polls listed my guess is that Thompson would be trailing Hillary by a 3 to 7 point spread. 

Thompson would most definitely do better than Romney, Giuliani, and McCain in W. Virginia.  I would be MOST DEFINITELY SHOCKED IF HE DIDN'T.

You all seen any W. Virginia polls in a Clinton-Thompson race yet?

---

by: bluemcdowell @ Mon Jul 09, 2007 at 19:04:29 PM CDT

Scooter Libby connection? (4.00 / 1)

bluemcdowell -- You've made lots of insightful points (as usual). :-)

What are people around there saying about Scooter Libby's getting out of jail time? Do you think Thompson's strong support for Libby could hurt him at all?

---

by: Clem Guttata @ Mon Jul 09, 2007 at 20:16:51 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

The link on the web site (4.00 / 1)

says that Thompson was not polled.  I think Thompson is not as scary as people think.  First, given how divided the Republican field is, I think it will be hard for any of them to lock down the nomination, and they may have a brokered convention.  Second, people compare him to Reagan, but that is dreaming.  Reagan had a sunny disposition, and Thompson does not.  Moreover, Reagan had an idea and a purpose, and Thompson does not.  Third, Reagan's wife was not the age of his children.  Do you think her plunging necklines are going to play well in Williamson?

Down with Capito!

---

by: West Virginia Lover @ Tue Jul 10, 2007 at 06:03:44 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I still think Thompson will be Republican nominee..... (4.00 / 2)

primarily because the Republican base is evangelicals and social conservatives.  And they prefer Thompson over everybody else.

Now winning the general election is another matter.  Right now I think any Democratic candidate will defeat any Republican candidate.

But things can change very quickly.  Nobody at this time 1n 1991 thought Bill Clinton had a prayer to be president either....

---

by: bluemcdowell @ Tue Jul 10, 2007 at 19:29:36 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

It is true that no one thought (4.00 / 1)

that Bill Clinton would be president at this time in 1991, but there were intimations that the Republicans might have a hard time in 1992, and those intimations turned out to be correct.  My guess is that we may have a few surprises along the way.  But one possible surprise would be that it plays out in an orderly predictable manner.

Down with Capito!

---

by: West Virginia Lover @ Tue Jul 10, 2007 at 20:54:41 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I forgot to mention: Evangelicals would be much more fired up about Thompson... (0.00 / 0)

than they would the other leading Republican candidates.

As for John Edwards being overrated, I can see that point.  He has underachieved in the polls especially in his home area the south for some reason.  Sadly the right wing Republican attack ads seem to be working especially in Edwards' home territory the south for some reason.  I know the $400 haircuts are overrated but I do firmly believe most southerners are the type of people that would hold that against him, especially in evangelical Republican headquarters  Southerners believe that any candidate especially a native son getting a $400 haircut is an elitist liberal hypocrite who is betraying the whole south just for doing that.

Look at Max Cleland and Harold Ford, two outstanding Democrats that were victims of the southern Republican attack ad machine.

As for Romney vs. Thompson, I still think Thompson has the edge as lazy as he might seen, due once again to the Republican evangelical vote.  Most evangelicals both Democratic and Republican that I know won't even consider voting for Romney.  Thompson on the other hand they simply cannot get enough of.

And southerners will always favor a Tennessee guy over a Massachusetts guy any day of the week.

And I still believe 100 percent that southern evangelicals are the Republican base.

However Pat Robertson and James Dobson are really tolerating Romney very well and would most definitely support Romney over any Democratic candidate 100 percent certain even if he is a Mormon.

---

by: bluemcdowell @ Mon Jul 09, 2007 at 20:12:52 PM CDT

Thanks Clem, I'm not in the "in-crowd" here so I really don't know.... (4.00 / 2)

how most people here feel.

I did talk to my good lady friend and a couple of more people today and didn't mention it.  My lady friend is anti-Bush just like I am.

Actually most people in my church still seem to support the Republicans unfortunately, saying the Democrats are "lesser of two evils."

Again sadly it's still mostly evangelical vs, non-evangelical as far as this subject is concerned.

I think more and more evangelicals are open to voting Democratic this time, but it's going to take a lot of work and we will most definitely have to address those 7 "values" issues I mentioned earlier - remember them?

Especially ABORTION.  Like my friend Dan said in his column on his website there are a lot more single-issue voters here "against abortion" than there are "for abortion."

Sadly that's a very hard nut to crack, even with Bush here I would say polling almost 97 percent disapproval among non-evangelicals and I say 60 to 65 disapproval even with evangelicals here in McDowell County....

Still though many if not most evangelicals here for the most part still buy the "if you voted for John Kerry you're a baby-killer and you'll burn in hell forever and forever" line every single time even today July 9, 2007.

I actually have a friend in Monroe County who agrees with me on everything except for abortion and guns, which are his bedrock issues.  And he doesn't even think Bush's greed "will keep him out of heaven."  He still believes there are WMDs in Iraq, he still says removing Saddam Hussein is war on terror" and every other Republican lie there is even though he is very mad at Bush for $3.00/gallon gas prices and everything else economically.

He is even more radical on the gun issue.  He will NOT vote for anyone supporting gun control.  He told me if there are 2 candidates squaring off and both support gun control, he leave that column blank 100 percent of the time without exception.   And I believe him 100 percent.

Typical W. Virginian Republican voter might I say?

My Democratic friends I believe hate the fact that Scooter Libby was "pardoned" very very much.  My Republican "so-called" friends on the other hand put their heads down and keep eerily quiet about it.  And I don't blame them.

Almost 99 percent of 2004 Bush voters here in McDowell County laugh and keep quiet every time I criticize Bush, except inside church's four walls, where they say "they feel free to support Bush's Iraq policies, say there are still WMDs in Iraq, and most definitely support Israel 100 percent."

I have to admit I'm very torn on the "Christians must support Israel or else we'll be cursed of God" issues.  It's a very touchy subject for me.  Even non-evangelicals here support Israel for the most part.

It's a crying shame that Christians put Bush in the White House.  Really Christians should be the ones opposing him  Sad but true.....

---

by: bluemcdowell @ Mon Jul 09, 2007 at 22:52:12 PM CDT