Manchin-totally lost in space

Sen. Goldilocks? (4.00 / 3)

This one is too big.
This one is too small.
Why can't something be "just right"?

Hint, it takes leadership to craft a solution that is "just right".  Criticizing others while the nation nears default isn't leadership.

Sen. Manchin, with all due respect, it's time to be more of a hero and less of a Nero.

In a good conversation everyone speaks.  In a great conversation some even listen.

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by: Wabi-Sabi @ Sat Jul 30, 2011 at 04:28:29 AM UTC

It's time to ask (4.00 / 4)

Who is going to run against him in the 2012 primary?  

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by: nightowlreader @ Sat Jul 30, 2011 at 04:44:55 AM UTC

What Sen. Manchin needs to read (4.00 / 4)

Click through to Few Little Budget Facts for a handy chart.

All numbers are from the OMB. The trend lines are pretty simple:

1.   Domestic discretionary spending and miscellaneous mandatory spending ("Other") is on a steady downward slope.
2.    Interest spending is on a downward slope.
3.    Defense spending has gone up over the past decade due to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, but otherwise is on a steady downward slope.
4.    Social Security is pretty flat.
5.    Medicare spending is up.

More from Kevin Drum:

So: should we be especially worried about discretionary spending, defense spending, or interest expenses? No. They haven't gone up over the past 30+ years and there's no special reason to think that trend will change. As always, we should pay attention to which programs we need and how to make them more efficient, but these parts of the budget just aren't long-term problems.

Should we be worried about Social Security? Not really. It will go up in the future thanks to the retirement of the baby boomers, but we know exactly how much it's going to increase: 1-2% of GDP through 2030 or so, and then it flattens out forever. That's going to require some combination of very small tax increases and very small benefit cuts over the next two decades, and that's it. No surprises.

This leaves Medicare. And that we should be worried about. It's gone steadily up over the past three decades and every forecast suggests it will keep going up indefinitely. Ditto for every other kind of healthcare spending, both federal and private.

Bottom line: our current deficit panic is mostly just manufactured hysteria. Our recent spike in spending is an artifact of the recession and will go away in the next few years. Generally speaking, defense, discretionary, and interest expenses aren't an issue and don't really need any special attention. Social Security is basically fine and needs only a few small tweaks. The only thing we should be seriously concerned about is healthcare spending. Period. That's the whole story. Anything else is just partisan showmanship.

As a reminder, the Obama health care insurance reform plan is a credible effort to tackle medicare costs. We don't know if it'll work or not, but it is a serious effort to deal with bending the cost curve.

All of our remaining "nation's long-term fiscal problems" come from too little revenue. That's due to (a) extending the Bush tax cuts and (b) persistently high unemployment.

Let the tax cuts expire and passing a stimulus/jobs bill will do far more to cut the deficit than anything being debated by the Pain Caucus in DC this week.

If you want to toss in a more equitable than usual sweetener for the bankers, start giving principal payments to homeowners underwater. (That'll stabilize the housing market and crank up construction again.)

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by: Clem Guttata @ Sat Jul 30, 2011 at 11:06:15 AM UTC

Don't think it could be clearer than that (4.00 / 2)

But Congress has lost it.

From Capito:

The American people need to see that we can get this done.  We will increase the debt limit and pay our bills, but we're not going to give the President a blank check...Make no mistake, this is an opportunity to finally handcuff spending and start living within our means, just like American families do.

But of course, the American people are not living within our means - net worth was negative before the recession - American families don't run balanced budgets, they borrow to buy houses and cars at minimum, and most run credit balances.

And more and more overextend and walk out on the debt.  Bankruptcy used to be a matter of shame, now it's a matter of course.  Guess Congress is just doing what American families have gotten used to doing.

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by: JAWVMM @ Sat Jul 30, 2011 at 16:24:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Capito excels at double-speak (4.00 / 5)

There is no blank check here. The President is just trying to follow the laws of the land. Obama is in a constitutional bind of Congress' making.

He's stuck trying to follow the laws that Congress has previously passed, (mostly with yes votes by Capito, mind you) that says he is legally obligated to spend money.

Now, Congress is trying to say that he can't finance the spending of the money despite what the constitution says. (No, that doesn't make any sense.)

It doesn't take a lot of common sense to decide that the constitution plus the latest thing that Congress passed (spending) takes higher precedent that something Congress passed earlier (a debt ceiling).

So, I agree with what Bill Clinton has said: Pres. Obama should just declare the 14th amendment solution and tell Congress not to bother with any more debt ceiling increases.

Or, even better yet, just mint a $5 trillion coin and be done with it.

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by: Clem Guttata @ Sat Jul 30, 2011 at 18:09:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

According to CSPAN no floor appearances since 21JUL (4.00 / 1)

Managed gutting, oh no, not dismantling, of Consumer Financial Protection Board.
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/pro...
Ah, Rep. Frank D-MA, who usually dismantles her.

And blames Obama for not nominating anyone to various FSOC posts. Has she been paying attention to Sen. Shelby's obstruction? Geeze.

NFTT: Support My Team or I Will Dance

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by: CA Berkeley WV @ Tue Aug 02, 2011 at 04:56:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bad Service (0.00 / 0)

I don't know if anyone has tried to reach out to the Manchin office, but I did.  In case you all haven't heard, he is forcing out former Byrd staffers who stayed on to help him.  I think there have been at least 5 Byrd staff pushed out so far.  I reached out to his Chief of Staff, Chris Kofinis, to get a decent explaination as to why he is dumping Senator Byrd staff, and this was the pleasant response I received:

From: Kofinis, Chris (Manchin) Chris_Kofinis@manchin.senate.gov
Sent: Friday, July 1, 2011 4:00 PM
Subject: Re: Policy Problem

Well, let me be obvious - Do not email me or this office again. Instead, I would recommend spending time on your job search, getting therapy, or putting together other disturbing rants that you can send to yourself.

AGAIN, DO NOT EMAIL ME OR THIS OFFICE AGAIN!

Best of luck.

Chris
..........................................

Now that is some great constituent service.  Instead of a response, I got a threat. This certainly got under my skin.  

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by: UncleScam @ Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 14:40:42 PM UTC

Uncle (0.00 / 0)

Out of curiosity, could you post the initial message to him?

When a man embarks upon a crime, he is morally guilty of any other crime which may spring from it. Sherlock Holmes.

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by: Carnacki @ Tue Aug 09, 2011 at 16:16:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Emails (0.00 / 0)

This was the first.  Then following is my response to the one in the previous posting, followed by his response to that one.  All in all, I think we are being served a big plate of "I don't care about West Virginians" with Chris Kofinis. I know those fired Byrd staffers, and am a former Byrd staffer myself.  I and WV miss him dearly. I fortunately never had the "pleasure" of working under Kofinis...

To: chris_kofinis@manchin.senate.gov chris_kofinis@manchin.senate.gov
Sent: Thursday, June 16, 2011 2:56 PM
Subject: Policy Problem

Chris -- Tell me it isn't true that you have no idea how to run an office.  Also, tell me it isn't true that you are running West Virginians and former Byrd staffers out. For the sake of the state I hope both of these are not true.  The state is grumbling about this, as you have apparently dumped some well connected staffers.  You should probably start listening for the drumbeat.  Once you start attacking one West Virginian, you are attacking all West Virginians.  

I hear that you are also driving the Manchin name into the ground on Capitol Hill.  I have spoken to numerous Chiefs who want nothing to do with you, and will enjoy burning any initiative whenever given the chance. Sad.

My response to the previous post:

Date: Wed, 13 Jul 2011 18:13:44 -0400
To: user chris_kofinis@manchin.senate.gov
Subject: Re: Policy Problem

So, let me get this straight, you are telling a constituent not to email the office?  Hmmm, ok then.  This will certainly play out well with folks.  And my job is quite good, thanks for your concern.  By the way, my concern with you is answering questions from a public office concerning public matters, but you obviously feel it necessary to threaten constituents instead.  That again answers a lot of questions about you.  Thanks for clarifying.  

His response:

From: Kofinis, Chris (Manchin) Chris_Kofinis@manchin.senate.gov
Sent: Wednesday, July 13, 2011 6:55 PM
Subject: Re: Policy Problem

I find your repeated emails very disturbing, do not email me or this office again.

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by: UncleScam @ Thu Aug 11, 2011 at 16:03:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]