Making a prediction for 2008

I just went through this exercise (4.00 / 1)

I met a friend of a friend Saturday night while waiting for a comedy show to begin. He's been out of the country for several months, doing volunteer work in South America, and he was trying to get caught up as quickly as possible on the political scene. He asked me who I thought the nominees would be, and who would get elected.

Clem, I came up with the same two choices - and the same outcome - you did.

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by: blonde moment @ Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 14:04:45 PM CDT

what about bloomberg? (4.00 / 1)

Wow... maybe I'm not as far out on a limb as I thought. :-)

What do you think of a possible Bloomberg entry?

I'm discounting it entirely. I don't expected him to run and even if he does I think it'll either help Dems or be a wash.

I'm not convinced he'll follow through on the noise about him maybe running. I think the media attention about is just horse-race noise, nothing substantive. With the strong Democratic field I don't see anything happening where they all manage to implode (or take each other down). It's going to be really hard for a 3rd party candidate to make any headway entering the field.

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by: Clem Guttata @ Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 16:30:16 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Bloomberg can most definitely be a factor IMHO; Look at the wonderful job he's done in New York City.... (4.00 / 1)

He was able to clean up the the mess that Giuliani left behind.

I actually like Bloomberg very much believe it or not.  He has done a fantastic job in NYC and definitely did a great job cleaning up the mess that Rudy G left behind.  NYC is much much better off financially than it ever has been before, the crime rate there is at its lowest in New York City history, and Bloomberg has also done a great job in governing from the center and reaching out to both Democrats and Republicans.

You know what I think Bloomberg might do, and it's not as far fetched as it sounds.  He could very well not run at all but still endorse the Democratic candidate for president.  Yes I know he was technically a Republican, but he only did that because there were was a lot more competition and a lot more candidates running on the Democratic side than there were on the Republican side and thus he did a rather intelligent thing and ran as a Republican.  He was actually a registered Democrat before he ran for mayor and is arguably even more socially liberal than Rudy G believe it or not.  And he is much, much nicer and friendly than Rudy G ever was. And he just changed his voter registration from Republican to Independent right now.  I think that was because Bloomberg felt that the Republican Party was catering too much to the right and not enough to the center. 

But he could also hurt us Dems big time if he chooses to endorse the Republican nominee for president.   Again that's very very possible.

Really mayor Bloomberg has a ton of options right now.  He could do almost anything he wants to right now.   He is definitely the "wild card" in the 2008 election.  He can either help or hurt both Democrats and Republicans big time depending on what he eventually decides to do.

Americans in every part of the country that have heard of Bloomberg - actually really his only drawback right now is name recognition - love him to death, and rightfully so.  He is one of the few genuine leaders this nation has today.

And he really doesn't have any real skeletons in his closet right now even though I'm sure the Democrats and most definitely the Republicans will try to find one.

 And that's the best compliment you can ever give a politician:  LEADER. 

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by: bluemcdowell @ Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 18:59:23 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Bloomberg still supports NY Rep. party (0.00 / 0)

You make some good points about Bloomberg's strong image as a leader. It's also definitely true that he moved to the Republican party just so he could get elected mayor--his views on many issues are to the left of Democratic Reps. from this state.

But, what makes him no longer anything close to a Democrat is his continued active financial support for the Republican party in New York. He's single-handily keeping that party financially afloat. He's no friend to the Democratic Party.

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by: Clem Guttata @ Thu Jul 19, 2007 at 19:06:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Unity '08 is the wild card (4.00 / 1)

My understanding is that there is a group of politicos, from both sides of the aisle, that are eyeing this effort to recruit both a Dem and a Rep to run as an independent ticket - which easily could be what Bloomberg is thinking of. He could step into a budding operation, dump half a billion into it, and get on the ballot in all 50 states. I've heard mutterings of a Bloomberg/Hagel ticket. I actually think that pairing could get traction; Bloomberg was a lifelong Dem, has been very upfront about switching to Rep in order to win the NYC mayoral primary and dump tons of money into winning the general. His switch to independent now would mean he's covered all his bases. And while Hagel is a Rep through and through, he's been a real maverick on Iraq.

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by: blonde moment @ Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 19:34:48 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Boy Clem I hope you're right and Mrs. Clinton is NOT the nominee... (4.00 / 1)

It will make us Democrats' job a lot easier.  Every poll in the country shows that Hillary will have a much tougher time winning the presidential election that either Obama or Edwards.

Sadly though brutal reality still states that it's Hillary's race to win or lose right now.  Only a gaffe of the worst kind can stop Mrs. Clinton right now. and she's way too intelligent for that to happen.  At least I think so.

I can live with either Obama or Edwards as our nominee. 

The only question about Obama is whether or not this country will vote for an African-American as president.  I actually think most Americans will, but just enough may not and that can change the electoral map fairly quickly.

Look at Harold Ford in Tennessee.  The GOP attack machine didn't cost him many votes, but they were still more than enough to cost him the election.  Yes I know Tennessee is in the South but there are many people even outside the South that still won't vote for an African-American even if he was running against the devil himself. 

Take four battleground states like Missouri, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Ohio.  At least 95 percent of the people in those four states wouldn't hesitate to vote for Obama.  But since they are virtually 50/50 right now besides possibly Ohio - we Dems still have a huge advantage there thank God - those tiny few 5 percent of voters could be very well all the Republicans need to sway the election in their favor.

Very very sad but very very true.

Again all we can do is take a "Wait and See" attitude like most things in life...

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by: bluemcdowell @ Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 19:16:44 PM CDT

my picks 11/06 (4.00 / 2)

The day after the last midterm elections, I was talking to a coworker (a Limbaugh fan, no less).  I asked him if he wanted to make any predictions about who the '08 Pres & V.P candidates would be for the Republicans and Democrats.  He managed only to pick Hillary (with much eye-rolling) as the Dem Presidential candidate.  He didn't have enough of an opinion to pick a Dem V.P. or even NAME a Republican candidate (what the f does Rush talk about all day?!)

My picks (and I put it in writing and pinned it to my cubicle wall) were RICHARDSON/Clark for the Democrats and ROMNEY/Hagel for the Republicans with a footnote that GORE & BLOOMBERG were the quasi-party spoilers.

These aren't neccesarily who I want to win, but only how I saw it playing out.  Gore and Bloomberg especially seem key to to derailing a Clinton nomination.  (come back in '12 or '16 , Hillary.  I'm just too anti-dynasty this time round)

 

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by: Hail Vandalia @ Wed Jul 18, 2007 at 05:16:19 AM CDT

Hail Vandalia (4.00 / 1)

I like Wes Clark a lot.

When a man embarks upon a crime, he is morally guilty of any other crime which may spring from it. Sherlock Holmes.

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by: Carnacki @ Wed Jul 18, 2007 at 10:37:13 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

good on you! (0.00 / 0)

Good for you for making predictions so early in the cycle. I'm not making any VP predictions. I doubt that any of declared candidates will be picked and there are way too many other possibilities out there otherwise.

I do think there's a real chance (say, 30%) for a brokered convention this year--in either party. It's more likely on the Dem side with three strong candidates who are going to have a hard time knocking each other out. It could happen on the Republican side, too, if someone like Gingrich comes in and makes it a three-way race.

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by: Clem Guttata @ Thu Jul 19, 2007 at 18:56:49 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well I admit I am 100 percent wrong again; Bloomberg no friend of us Democrats apparently (4.00 / 2)

 I once again have to eat my words, say I'm sorry, and admit I was 100 percent wrong.

I guess he's a sellout too unfortunately.   And now that I know that he's now supporting the Republican Party 100 percent when he used to be a loyal and faithful Democrat he's actually one of the worst kind.

Well now that I know that I hope he does run for president.  That will just take away even more votes from the Republican nominee and probably give us an extra state or two as well.

It seems like all Republicans are like that nowadays.  Just slip them a little cash and they'll support the Republican line 100 percent of the time.

George W. Bush "bought off."  If he isn't why are we still in Iraq when there's absolutely no logical reason at all for us to be over there?

Apparently 47 US Republican senators have been slipped a little cash as well and now are "bought off" as well.

And yes that includes you too Sen. Lieberman!

And yes you too Mayor Bloomberg!  And you even fooled me there for a while!

I still believe Bloomberg did a tremendous job as NYC mayor.  I still am very interested in what his future plans are.....

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by: bluemcdowell @ Thu Jul 19, 2007 at 23:00:00 PM CDT