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Appalachian Coal breaks $100/ton

by: faithfull

Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 00:31:56 AM EDT


(Cross-posted at the Appalachian Voices Front Porch blog)

Northern Appalachian coal just hit $110/ton.  In 2007, it bottomed out at less than $45/ton, meaning it has nearly tripled in ONE YEAR.

In April 2007 it was $45/ton.  As you can see, for the last three years, Central Appalachian coal usually tracks fairly closely to Northern Appalachian coal. If anything, it tends to be slightly more expensive. The price of Appalachian coal has now officially quintupled in less than 8 years.

faithfull :: Appalachian Coal breaks $100/ton
This is the Northern and Central Appalachian coal basin, where 90%+ of Appalachian coal comes from.

A lot of this coal is mined using aggressive extraction methods like mountaintop removal mining, which has already flattened more than 474 of the worlds oldest mountains.

The writing has been on the market wall now for a long time. The NYT had already reported a similar price trend in Central Appalachian coal and a long term trend of Appalachian coal.

This is a big deal not only for investors who want to see new coal-fired power plants constructed and more mountaintop removal coal mines, but $100/ton coal in Appalachia may signal a death knell for coal-fired electricity in general.

The northern and central Appalachian states (PA, WV, KY) are where the Presidential candidates are right now and we need to hear how they plan to deal with mountaintop removal and coal-fired power plants in the face of skyrocketing  coal prices.

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coal price catch-22 (0.00 / 0)
The challenge for commodity producers is you like prices to keep going up so you make more and more profit, but not go up so fast that there is demand destruction. You don't want people to switch to a different product. For example, if propane prices suddenly went up 5-fold, I'd look into switching my appliances to electric.

That's why for the longest time the Saudi's would keep releasing more oil into the market to keep gas prices from getting too bad. (Now that they're running out of oil, they can't do that any more.)

A rapid increase in prices like this can boost short-term profits but it is horrible for long-term prospects. A look at futures contracts could provide some hints if the market thinks this is a long-term price change or just a short-term spike. The end-of-March run-up in particular could be due to spot shortages and/or future/option contract expirations.

One last thought... I'm curious how much coal prices are sensitive to transportation costs. Is the new much higher price level of gas impacting the price of coal?


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