West Virginia Democratic Presidential Primary
Okay, here goes, everything you need to know about the May 13, West Virginia Democratic Presidential primary and didn't even know to ask...
Q: Who is going to win?
A: Hillary Clinton, by a large margin. Outside of Bill's home state of Arkansas, West Virginia is probably the most friendly Clinton state in the country. Demographically, this is a very, very friendly state for Hillary Clinton. President Bill Clinton is fondly remembered here. West Virginians like to vote for known quantities. (We've had the same Senators for how long?) We know the Clinton's--major changes are hard to come by around here.
Q: How big will she win?
A: This is a relatively small state with a fractured media market so we don't get much polling. Two polls (one a while back, one last weekend) show a race around Hillary 50%, Obama 25%. In other words, a 30 or 40 point Hillary Clinton win is not at all out of the question. By my calculations, a 72-28 C-O margin is Clinton's natural base. If Obama loses by anything less than 35 points he's made up ground on Clinton.
Q: How many pledged delegates will Clinton pick up?
A: If Clinton wins by 35-40 points she'll most likely pick up 12 delegates. The 28 pledged delegates are divided into five pools: 6 delegates in each of 3 congressional districts; one 3 delegate state-wide pool, and another 7 delegate state-wide pool.
The really really big Clinton blow-out scenario yields a 5-1 split in one CD (CD3, most likely), 4-2 splits in the other two, and a 2-1 and 4-2 split in the state-wide pools for a +12 total.
Q: What happens if Obama makes up some ground in the state, will Clinton still pick up lots of delegates?
A: This is where things get really interesting. Because of the delegate selection plan, if Obama somehow pulls the totals into a more moderate 10-20 point loss, the delegate margin will be a Clinton +6 or +8 gain.
In fact, the still solid Clinton victory scenario of a 10-15 point margin could yield as little as a +2 or +4 delegate Clinton delegate pickup.
Q: What's the super-delegate situation?
A: There are 10 party leaders and elected officials plus one add-on delegates. Of the 10 party leaders 3 (and unelected officials) have pledged for Clinton, 2 (elected officials) for Obama (Sen. Rockefeller and Rep. Rahall) and the other 5 are unpledged. Gov. Manchin and Sen. Byrd are both on record saying they will not endorse before the primary.
Q: What's the campaign been like so far?
A: Hm-mm. Near as I can tell, the Clinton and Obama campaigns in West Virginia are a lot like the Clinton and Obama campaigns everywhere else. Let's start with Clinton first:
- Clinton has been slow to start up any field organization, has far fewer field offices than Obama, and has down little to meaningfully engage volunteers. In an unintentional affront to party activists, her campaign "arrived" in the state the day after county conventions.
The campaign's strength is her family. This week Bill and Chelsea are making their third visit to the W.Va. in the last two months; today Hillary is making her second in two months. (Obama has been here once in the same time period.) The Clinton years are remembered fondly in West Virginia. We have a moderate Democrat Governor. The Clinton family DLC-rhetoric is quite comfortable to many, many voters.
- The major strengths of Obama's campaign are his field organization and his super-delegate endorsements. The campaign arrived early and helped activists organize to dominate the county convention process. The endorsements of Rep. Rahall and Sen. Rockefeller provide key validation by trusted West Virginians.
The big question mark for Obama is how much personal time he is willing to invest in the state. Retail politics is critical here. The Clintons are blanketing the state. For Obama to do well, there needs to be Obama visits in all parts of the state, too. (Eh, hum, including the panhandles, north and east.)
Q: What are the big issues in W.Va.?
A: Typical (Appalachian) stuff: coal, guns, and gas.
Maybe it's a failure of imagination on my part, but I doubt Hillary and Obama will be battling on substantive issues in West Virginia. On the key issues, they're pretty close in what they're saying. It's too bad, but we're probably in for another week of identity politics and whatever faux scandal the press gins up next.
Some of my anti-Mountaintop Removal activists friends think Obama is a bit better on the issue than Hillary. (I think they're both pretty bad.) They both support the Big Coal bondoogle of trying to clean toxic coal. Regardless, I just can't see either one of them attacking the other on those topics.
Q: What else?
A: I'm out of questions, it's your turn. Ask away in the comments.
Update: Two diaries I ought to plug.
First, for a nuts and bolts list of details about the primary process read West Virginia Democratic Primary Explained.
Second, for full disclosure, I am Obama supporter. Here's my endorsement stating Why Barack Obama is the best choice for West Virginia and for our country |
