By The Numbers

Obama in WV (4.00 / 2)

Unless Obama, or possibly the Clintons as his surrogates, come to WV I give him little chance here.  Campaign visits to the Mountain State go a long way and would gain Obama national press given his huge defeat here in the primaries.  

PDAWV- To clarify, are you saying the campaign has already decided that WV will be a Tier 3 state for the duration of the campaign?

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by: Jeremiah @ Fri Aug 01, 2008 at 09:57:14 AM CDT

Jeremiah (4.00 / 2)

I agree. Retail politics plays big here. McCain is making stops in WV and Obama is not. Obama is the best person who can convince West Virginians. Even with the Clintons' popularity, I don't think surrogates have that same ability. If Obama campaigns here, he wins. If not, I'm not sure advertising can do it. I'd be happy to be wrong, but I really think it's like Gov. Manchin said. People want to meet him, size him up, hear him for themselves. McCain's celebratory status with the media for decades has made him much more familiar to voters.

When a man embarks upon a crime, he is morally guilty of any other crime which may spring from it. Sherlock Holmes.

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by: Carnacki @ Fri Aug 01, 2008 at 10:48:40 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Sorry (0.00 / 0)

Sorry it took so long to respond.

My sources tell me Tier 3 is our designation for the remainder of the campaign.

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by: PDAWV @ Sat Aug 02, 2008 at 20:47:45 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Obama's gotta come (4.00 / 2)

Carnacki is right, all of the staff and ads money can buy will never deliver this state. Obama must devote some personal time and not just for big rallies at the airports. He has to get out in the smaller communities and visit local hot spots - like he did at Murads in Charleston. The prez. campaigns staffers just look at population density when they plan stops, but it would do wonders to visit smaller communities here...the media will follow him everywhere anyways.

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by: jcsaunders @ Fri Aug 01, 2008 at 14:18:54 PM CDT

I think both of the Virginias and yes even Kentucky are winnable depending on coalffield voters.... (4.00 / 1)

Obama trails McCain in Kentucky 58 to 34 percent among eastern Kentucky coalfield voters in Congressional District 5, which is almost exactly like most if not at all of West Virginia, and it usually is actually the exact opposite since the coalfields along with the city of Louisville are the most Democratic parts of the Bluegrass State.

And from what I've observed here in McDowell County that is most definitely the case as well.  The most Democratic parts of both states are probably actually where Obama is his weakest as of right now.

That's most because of religion and to a lesser degree race.  Rev. Wright rightfully or wrongfully hurt Obama big time down here.  And while I agree with Obama's small-town comments most here do not and that hurt him here as well.

And most of all what's hurt him the most the lie that Obama is the Antichrist, which is having a huge negative effectin white conservative evangelical and Pentecostal churches here in eastern KY, southern WV, and southwestern VA.  I know that sounds "nutty" but it's not. It's 100 percent the truth.  Most voters I know down here want to vote for Obama but are very, very hesitant to do because the Book of Revelation according to their doctrine will condemn you to hell forever and ever if you "take the mark of the Beast, namely the Antichrist."  Even most non-evangelicals here are scared to death for Obama as well just for that very reason

Overcome the "Antichrist" lie and I think Obama will shock folks in Virginias, and yes even West Virginia and Kentucky as well.

It's not as much race as religion down here in the coalfields.  Even many white evangelicals and Pentecostals would vote for Obama if weren't for the "Antichrist" lie.

You turn that 58-34 deficit into a 58-34 lead which usually is the case down here and Obama carries the state.  An even 50-50 split might even do since Obama is actually doing much better than John Kerry did in 2004 among non-coalfield residents in all three states:  WV, VA, and yes even KY.

In Virginia Obama is actually outperforming Kerry in southwestern Virginia except strangely enough the coalfield counties Buchanan County especially, and it is actually the most Democratic county down here.

I think Senator Obama most definitely needs to visit the coalfields.  Politico.com even suggested he come to Mingo County. I say Williamson on the WV-KY border would be a great place for Obama to visit since he'll be visiting coalfield residents of both West Virginia and Kentucky.

We shall have to "wait and see" as always....

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by: bluemcdowell @ Fri Aug 01, 2008 at 18:37:59 PM CDT