West Virginia Blue
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From December 2007 to March 2008, I wrote various drafts of a proposal on how our political parties -- starting in 2012 -- might adopt primary election procedures that would better serve our country in selecting presidential candidates. I originally drafted a hypothetical calendar for 2008, based on general election results from 2004. Now that we have the results for 2008, I can now propose a calendar specific to 2012.
The system by which our parties choose their presidential candidates has proven itself to be, at best, highly questionable -- at worst, severely flawed.
The primary calendar we need most is one that is built on an orderly and rational plan -- one that is based on mathematics and on recent historical outcomes -- and not on an arbitrary, publicity-driven, system of one-upsmanship. The change I propose would provide for a more effective, equitable process than the one we have now.
The following factors are the key ones to consider:
Margin of Victory
- The state primaries would be placed in order according to the leading candidates' margins of victory in the preceding general election -- with the states registering the closest margins of victory going first.
For example, John McCain won Missouri by 0.1% and Barack Obama won North Carolina by 0.4%; conversely, McCain won Wyoming by 33%, and Obama won Hawaii by 45%. Therefore, the primary calendar I propose would commence with primaries being held in states such as Missouri and North Carolina -- and would close with such states as Wyoming and Hawaii.
- The purpose of ordering the states according to the margin of victory is to help the parties determine which candidates can appeal to those states that have found themselves most recently on the Electoral Divide. A narrow margin in the general election is reflective of an evenly divided electorate. In this scenario, a candidate who appeals to, say, Florida and Montana is more likely to appeal to a greater number of Americans on the whole.
Iowa, New Hampshire, and Fairness
- Iowa and New Hampshire might object to this new system, given their longstanding tradition of being the first states to cast their ballots. However, so long as Iowa and New Hampshire retain their record of being fairly bipartisan states, they'll maintain their position towards the front of the primary schedule.
- Just because a state should have its primary later in the season does not mean that that state will prove invaluable to the process. Indiana and North Carolina weren't held until May 6th, but those two states might have very well decided the fate of the 2008 Democratic nomination.
- This new system allows other states to play a greater role in how the parties select their candidates. For example, Missouri and North Carolina would be two of the states to get the limelight in 2012. Likewise, based on the results to come in November of 2012, a still-different slate of states could have a more significant role come 2016. A rotating system will be healthier and fairer.
Groupings of Five, and Timing & Spacing
- By placing states into groupings of five, no one state will be overly emphasized on any given date.
- Candidates will still need to address the concerns of individual states, whilst having to maintain an overall national platform. For example, a candidate will be less able to campaign against NAFTA in Ohio whilst campaigning for it in Florida.
- Given that each state has its own system for electing its delegates, these groupings of five states will act as an overall balancer. Ideally, caucuses will be done away with altogether by 2012. However -- should that not happen -- states with caucuses, states with open primaries, and states with closed primaries can all coexist within a grouping, therefore no one system will hold too much influence on any given date.
- Racial and geographic diversity in this process has been a great concern for many. The narrowest margins of victory in 2008 were in a wide variety of regions -- the Midwest, the Great Lakes, the Mid-Atlantic, the South, and the West.
- All parties would have an interest in addressing these narrow-margined states early on. The incumbent will want to win over those states that were most in doubt of him in the previous election, and opposing parties will want to put forth candidates who have the best chance of winning over those very same states.
- Primaries will be held biweekly, giving candidates and the media enough time to process and respond to the outcomes of each wave of primaries.
- Washington DC will be placed in the same grouping as whichever state -- Virginia or Maryland -- is closer to its own margin of victory.
- American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, and Americans Abroad -- not having Electoral votes of their own -- will determine their own primary dates, so long as they occur between the first grouping and the last grouping.
Under these guidelines, the proposed calendar for the 2012 primary season is:
January 2012
Tue, 1/10
Missouri
North Carolina
Indiana
Florida
Montana
Tue, 1/24
Ohio
Georgia
Virginia
Colorado
South Dakota
Tue, 2/7
North Dakota
Arizona
South Carolina
Iowa
New Hampshire
Tue, 2/21
Minnesota
Pennsylvania
Texas
Nevada
West Virginia
Tue, 2/26
Mississippi
Wisconsin
New Jersey
New Mexico
Tennessee
Tue, 3/6
Kansas
Nebraska
Oregon
Kentucky
Michigan
Tue, 3/20
Washington
Maine
Louisiana
Arkansas
Alabama
Tue, 4/3
Connecticut
California
Illinois
Delaware
Maryland
Washington DC
I will keep this diary relatively short so that moderators can embed the video. It was the first time I had seen this ad and the first I was aware of such ad.
Beth Walker, Republican candidate for the Supreme Court of Appeals, says the following in her campaign ad "Believe":
My little brother still lives in the very RED California county of Kern. The home of Nashville West and the Buck Owens Recording Studio. The home of Merle Haggert, whom I have to say he does sound a little different now than when he recorded Okie from Miskogee. He is in CA-22. To see yet another eggresus example of computer gerrymandering, look at his district.
Before McCarthy, his representative was Bakersfield Congressman Bill Thomas, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee. My brother now thinks McCain is naive about pork. A senator's responsibility is to represent his state, not then entire nation, and on this pint he thinks McCain is too idealistic. Edwards Air Force Base is in this district and so is the Naval Air Warfare Center Weapons Division at China Lake, where my dad used to work, and now my brother works. I used to take all kinds of flack over our King of Pork.
According to the nearest neighbor analysis performed by Nate (a.k.a. poblano) of 538.com, Kentucky, North Carolina and Missouri are the states most like West Virginia.
With scores around 25 (on a scale of 0 to 100), West Virginia's "nearest neighbors" aren't all that close. Across all his analyses, the best fitting neighbors are NC and SC (71). Some states, like Utah, bottom out at 0 for all three nearest neighbors. Oddly enough, West Virginia is not one of the top three states most like any other.
The math part of his analysis is on solid ground, even if there's room to quibble on the variables used to match up neighbors. Nate chose variables based on what's most predictive for recent presidential voting patterns. For other purposes, other variables might be better.
We've got a really rocky road ahead of us. There are three major crisis facing our country -- I measure candidates for office against their willingness to acknowledge and address these issues.
A: A rapid responsible end of our occupation of Iraq. This will free up our time, treasure, and talent to deal with the other major crises hitting our country, including the major economic crises that our deficit war spending is making much worse.
B: Immediately address human contributions to the global climate change crisis. The sooner we stop spending money on energy sources that make the problems worse, the sooner we move to solutions that address the serious problems ahead, the less severe our future consequences. (Energy independence is not the same issue.)
C: The need for universal single-payer healthcare for all United States citizens so we can enjoy labor mobility, economic security and future prosperity. It is a moral failing of our country that individuals are bankrupt by healthcare costs and are turned away at hospitals for lack of insurance.
For those who wonder, what will an Obama presidency bring, here (via Kos) is the most succinct answer I've seen yet (emphasis mine):
WENNER: "Is there a marker you would lay down at the end of your first term where you say, 'If this has happened or not happened, I would consider it a negative mark on my governance'?"
OBAMA: "If I haven't gotten combat troops out of Iraq, passed universal health care and created a new energy policy that speaks to our dependence on foreign oil and deals seriously with global warming, then we've missed the boat. Those are three big jobs, so it's going to require a lot of attention and imagination, and it's going to require the American people feeling inspired enough that they're prepared to take on these big challenges."
That's music to my ears.
Of course, it's not enough for us to cheer on Obama from the sidelines, celebrate a historic inauguration and relax. Addressing crises does not come cheap nor easy. He will face relentless pressure to maintain the status quo.
We can each work hard to build support for these progressive policies and help elect more Democrats to Congress so an Obama administration will have the votes necessary to enact those policies.
There's a nice op-ed for Hillary Clinton in The Charleston Gazette this week. It's written by Bonnie Brown, a Democratic delegate from Kanawha County's 30th District.
As the former chairwoman of the Equal Pay Commission, I know that West Virginia is no different in the fact that women's wages are lower than those of men. Our task was to try to equalize salaries in state government to those on the lowest rungs of the pay scale - mostly women.
We have come a long way in the fight to ensure that all workers get a fair chance to succeed. However, women today still make only 77 cents for every dollar men do for equal work, causing America's working families to lose an average of $4,000 per year. While the cost of living continues to rise, the consequences of unequal pay for equal work are putting a heavy burden on West Virginia families. We cannot continue to shortchange working women and their families.
Hillary understands how important pay equity and good treatment of workers is to our country's prosperity, stability and security. She led efforts in the Senate to strengthen equal-pay laws and end pay disparity. She knows what families go through just to make ends meet, and has been a loyal advocate of helping hardworking Americans get ahead.
In the Senate, Hillary has advocated fairness in the workplace and investment in our work force. She fought for bargaining rights for public servants such as firefighters and police officers, and spearheaded initiatives to help veterans get good jobs after their military service.
As president, Clinton will continue fighting for working families by championing equal pay rights, creating jobs that can't be outsourced, supporting trade deals that are pro-worker, and investing in high wage jobs with a future.
What strikes me most about the op-ed is how effectively it provides a positive rationale for voting for Democrats in November. This piece could just as easily apply to either candidate as a positive comparison to McCain in the fall. It also a powerful remind why we need to increase our majority in Congress.
For long time readers of this blog, you've heard me say several times I have preferences, not strong opinions, about the presidential contenders. Increasingly, though, the very most likely scenario is the election of Barack Obama as the next President of the United States. As this scenario has grown more and more likely, I find myself more and more pleased with the possibility.
Now the time to vote is here -- I will cast my early ballot in the next few days -- I have decided with certainty. I have more than a preference, I have a strong belief.
I believe Sen. Barack Obama is the best President for West Virginia and the best President for our country.
An exceptional person for challenging times
I have written before about the key issues facing our state and our country: getting out of Iraq, providing universal health care, and addressing the global climate crisis. I feel we can address these three major issues in a responsible, progressive manner and free up the resources to turn around our economy and, in general, return the country back on the right track.
- Obama is the most likely presidential candidate to get us out of Iraq quickly and responsibly -- equally important, he's the least likely to entangle our country in any future foreign policy misadventures.
- Obama is the most likely to successfully bring together all of the different people necessary to deftly handle our major challenges.
- Obama is the most likely to chart a safe destiny for us all through the troubled times ahead.
This is why I believe Sen. Barack Obama is the best pick for President for West Virginia and for our country.
Obama's words and deeds speak volumes
Some have tried to dismiss Obama as merely an inspiring speaker. Yet, his ability to inspire through words is only part of the story. Look no further than how he's running this campaign -- already a massive $200+ million grassroots-funded organization -- to see that Obama is equally inspiring through his deeds.
Sen. Barack Obama believes in the power of individuals. He has empowered individuals at every level of his campaign -- campaign volunteers, field organizers, all of his staff and supporters-- all are empowered to take action.
This is how we change West Virginia and America for the better. Not by waiting for a corporate master to give the company town a face lift, but by taking action ourselves with a leader at the top who listens.
To solve the difficult problems we face ahead, we need leaders that empower all people. We need leaders who believe that everyone has the ability to contribute. We need leaders who actively encourage bottom-up problem-solving.
- This is a style of leadership to lift all of us up, not just the wealthy few with hundreds of millions of dollars in their bank accounts, but those will not even hundreds of dollars in no bank account.
- This is a style of leadership to help Appalachia through the wrenching economic times ahead.
- This is a style of leadership that provides more than just the hope of a better future, it delivers a better future.
This is why I believe Sen. Barack Obama is the best President for West Virginia and the best President for our country.
In good company
Rep. Rahall, Sen. Rockefeller and Caroline Kennedy have all endorsed Obama. I want to share some of their words. First, Rep. Rahall
The new voters [Obama] has brought to the process this year and the new direction, in my opinion, add up to what our country needs.
We cannot have another four years of what we've had, or even worse. This country's yearning for new direction, new change. A faith, a hope and courage that can make us all proud.
Barack Obama is the most qualified person - Democrat or Republican - to lead our country in the face of enormous challenges - the very real threat of terrorism, economic uncertainty, and instability at home and abroad.
Barack is committed to changing lives - and changing the landscape of West Virginia and America. He genuinely cares about people, and he will fight for all the things I have fought for my entire public career - health care for all, good-paying jobs, a strong manufacturing base, protecting seniors' retirement, and fighting terrorism.
Over the years, I've been deeply moved by the people who've told me they wished they could feel inspired and hopeful about America the way people did when my father was president. This sense is even more profound today. That is why I am supporting a presidential candidate in the Democratic primaries, Barack Obama.
Sometimes it takes a while to recognize that someone has a special ability to get us to believe in ourselves, to tie that belief to our highest ideals and imagine that together we can do great things. In those rare moments, when such a person comes along, we need to put aside our plans and reach for what we know is possible.
We have that kind of opportunity with Senator Obama. It isn't that the other candidates are not experienced or knowledgeable. But this year, that may not be enough. We need a change in the leadership of this country - just as we did in 1960.
I agree with Rep. Nick Rahall, Sen. Jay Rockefeller, and Caroline Kennedy, Sen. Barack Obama is the best President for West Virginia and the best President for our country.
In summary
I invite you to join with me and the thousands of volunteers already working hard in West Virginia for a better future for our state and our country.
Help elect Sen. Barack Obama as the next President of the United States. Vote, donate, and volunteer for Obama.
Contrary to what many polls indicate, Senator Obama does indeed have allies and supporters in West Virginia. Today, the Charleston Gazette announced its endorsement of Senator Barack Obama to be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States.
We hope [West Virginians] support the brilliant, inspiring, eloquent frontrunner in the race, Barack Obama.
Sen. Obama is a rare figure in U.S. politics - a deep thinker who rises above partisan sniping and makes statecraft seem noble. He raises hope that, after the disastrous Bush years mercifully come to an end, Americans can again be proud of their national leader.
With news of their arrival (more below), I'd like to extend a warm welcome to West Virginia to Clinton and Obama field staff. We look forward to lots of events and, we hope, many candidate visits in the next 8 weeks.
I'd also like to extend a personal welcome to field staff from both campaigns to West Virginia Blue.
Please feel free to create an account here and directly post information about candidate events. You are welcome to participate at this site like anyone else. I do ask that paid campaign staff members clearly identify their position when posting.
Both Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama's campaigns have contacted your State Democratic Party to let us know that their campaigns are in West Virginia for our May 13th Primary. Senator Clinton is expected to visit the state on Wednesday and as we get more details on her visit, and others by both campaigns, we will let you know.
Both campaigns have staff on the ground and are beginning to work the state for this historic primary. As we get contact information for their staff, headquarters, events, etc. we will make every effort to keep you informed.
Some key dates to remember for this historic primary:
April 22, 2008: Last day to register to vote in the Primary Election. Get an form online here April 23, 2008: Early Voting begins at your County Courthouse during normal business hours and on Saturdays - some counties offer extended hours too.
May 10, 2008: Last Day for Early Voting
May 13, 2008: Primary Election
Let us know if you find any errors or omissions, or if you have any additional information about candidates. Post your information as a comment in the appropriate diary, as a comment here, or email wvablue {at} gmail.com.
Only one W.Va. superdelegate, Hillary Clinton supporter Marie Prezioso, has endorsed a candidate.
Our five elected officials Gov. Manchin, Sens. Byrd and Rockefeller, Rep. Mollohan and Rahall, have not endorsed a candidate. Neither have the W.Va. Democratic Party chair and vice-chair, Nick Casey and Belinda Biofore. The remaining W.Va. superdelegates are national DNC member Alice Germond, (above-mentioned) Marie Prezioso, and Pat Maroney.
Marie Prezioso was a 1990 State Campaign Director for Sen. Jay Rockefeller. Pat Maroney is the chief council for the West Virginia AFL-CIO.
I'm don't how the process works for non-DNC, non-elected officials to be named as super-delegates. If anyone else can help shed light on that, I'm quite curious.
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