West Virginia Blue
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I'm working on an analysis of overlapping 2007 campaign contributions to Sen. Rockefeller and Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (WV-02). Before I post it, there's a couple of things I'd like to point out. I also have a question for readers.
Here's the first thing I've noticed: it sure pays to be an incumbent.
Sen. Jay Rockefeller, who has never been seriously threatened with a challenger this cycle, received $2,552,219 in individual donations and $873,400 in PAC donations during 2007.
During that same time period Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (WV-02) raised $266,140 from individuals and $243,730 from PACS.
Here's the second thing I want to point out: Rockefeller and Capito are opposite ends of the political spectrum. When you analyze their votes and stated positions on a full range of issues, you find that Rockefeller is the most liberal member of the West Virginia delegation and Capito the most Conservative.
In closing... we've got two opposing forces here. First, it is relatively easy for incumbents to raise money. Second, Rockefeller and Capito represent very different political constituencies. Despite Rockefeller's recent willingness to support the Bush administration on intelligence matters, his alignment with Bush policies comes nowhere close to trusty backbencher Republican Capito.
So, here's my question. How much fund-raising success do you think Capito has in getting money from Rockefeller donors? Would you guess that 1%, 5%, 10%, 20% or even more of Capito's campaign contributions come from Rockefeller donors?
In the next few days I'll share the answer and, what the heck, even name some names of joint donors.
This post is all about one egregious example of how difficult it is to unseat an incumbent Republican Rep. no matter how poorly they represent their constituents.
Make no mistake about it, John Unger's campaign to defeat vulnerable Republican Shelley Moore Capito (WV-02) is an uphill battle. As Bow Tie Boy pointed out this week, even though he was surprised by the "relatively low cash on hand for Capito (by off year incumbent standards)", she's still well ahead of Unger's campaign.
Below the break, find out why Marcus W. Estlack of Morgantown, WV has shot himself in the foot and why it is so dang-on hard to defeat incumbents who are willing to accept money from Political Action Committees they don't actually represent the interests of.
As you've no doubt seen across the blogosphere, the Q1 fund-raising numbers are out. It's a chance to measure tangible political strength (and get hints at future intentions). Here in West Virginia, Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) is not fund-raising like someone eager to become a Senator.
Capito's anemic numbers:
Q1 FEC Reports for "Shelley Moore Capito for Congress"
Capito raised half of what she did 2 years ago. Back in 2005 she was giving serious consideration to running against Byrd. The 2006 numbers show what an election year Q1 looks like.
Q1 2006 -
Raised: $233,991.00
On Hand: $713,278.64
Here's two more points of comparison. How did Rahall and Mollohan, both presumably planning on running for re-election in the House, do this quarter? Check it out below the break:
Yes, there are a lot of months between now and 2008 Election Day. Yes, the Presidential primary season has already begun in earnest. And, yes, there are still a lot of months left before W.Va. Congressional and state election season begins.
Yet, it's not too early to start thinking about that next campaign. The Democratic majority in Congress is slim. The progressive infrastructure continues to grow (witness this blog, for example). One shining example is ActBlue.
We've setup an West Virginia Blue ActBlue fund-raising page. In perhaps the most exciting development of all, we can already make donations to Republican Representative Shelley Moore Capito's eventual opponent!
We'll add further updates as the races develop.
Meanwhile, here's another way to register your opinion about who's naughty and nice!
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