West Virginia Blue
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He reviews each congressional district where Obama did worse than either Kerry or Gore. There's only one in W.Va.
West Virginia
WV-03 Rahall (D): Kerry 46%, Obama 42%
West Virginia generally sees pretty good Democratic performance, at the federal and statewide levels, but not this year. That shouldn't change too much, and the state should still favor Democrats at most levels (if not the top level).
Here's a weird quirk: the West Virginia district which most strongly supported Obama is held by a Republican, Shelley Moore Capito. Obama got 44% in WV-02, Capito's district.
The entire diary is worth a read. Here is his summary:
So, every district in the country in which Kerry outperformed Gore Obama is in either McCain's home state, Kerry's home state, Appalachia, the South, or NY-09.
[snip]
As for the South and Appalachia, not all Democrats are doomed in these areas (though some are trending away from the party) and not all parts of these states were hostile to Obama (who won Florida, and surged in Texas).
Two of the reasons most often cited for Obama slippage are racism and general demographic shifts away from the Democratic Party. Four years of a reasonably successful Obama administration should do quite a bit to counter some of the former, so hopefully the numbers in 2012 should give us an indicator of where, and to what extent, the latter was a factor.
Familiarity is another strong factor in Appalachia--an inherent fear of change and discomfort with anything new. Some district visits by a successful Pres. Obama will go a long way toward boosting his re-election numbers.
President Bill Clinton to Visit Beckley on Saturday
BECKLEY, WV - The Obama-Biden campaign today released details about President Bill Clinton's visit to Beckley, WV on Saturday, November 1st. President Clinton's visit to the Mountain State will focus on Barack Obama's commitment to bring the change West Virginia families need, create jobs, and turn around the economy.
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 1st
Beckley, WV
CHANGE WE NEED RALLY WITH PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON
Word Memorial Park
corner of Neville Street and Leslie Gates Place (downtown Beckley)
Beckley, WV 25801
Doors Open: 9:00 AM
The event is free and open to the public. Tickets are not required, however, an RSVP is strongly encouraged. To RSVP please visit http://wv.barackobama.com/Beck...
Parking is very limited, please carpool if possible. For more information please contact the Beckley West Virginia Campaign for Change HQ at 304-881-6514.
First set of numbers is poll in the field Oct 4-8, in parenthesis is the Sep 14-16 poll.
Obama has solidified support among Democrats and among Women. West Virginia is absolutely in play. This is great news for Obama and a huge blow to McCain.
Kos has the details on ads from Obama, McCain, and the RNC in W.Va. last week:
Two last points -- I like that West Virginia and Montana are still getting attention. Both Obama and McCain are spending in Wheeling, WV, which hits both SE Ohio and SW Pennsylvania. McCain is also in Parkersburg, which borders SW Ohio. But both Obama and the RNC are dabbling in Charleston, which is smack in the center of the state. Obama must be flirting with making a play for the state, while the RNC seems a bit worried:
Also, for those who haven't been paying close attention to polls, here's how the race looks after six public polls in West Virginia (from Pollster.com):
Has anyone been polled on Presidential preferences lately? This media drop may motivate some more public polls. If nothing else, I'm guessing we'll see some more polls after the debates are over.
On the final day of a busy week at the Democratic National Convention, Gov. Joe Manchin spent a few minutes in a short formal interview with West Virginia Blue. He shared his thoughts on several timely political issues. Note: exact quotes in quotation marks, all the rest is paraphrased as close as possible based on notes.
West Virginia Blue - Based on your experience in working with Anne Barth in her role at Byrd's office, what do you think she will bring to the W.Va. delegation in the US House?
Gov. Manchin: "Anne Barth is by far the highest quality candidate for that district since its inception. Her chances are really great. Her strength is she already has spent an awful lot of time gaining the experience knowing how Washington works and who the players there." She will not be a freshman. "Every West Virginia will be proud to have her as our congresswoman."
West Virginia Blue - We're both here at the convention, what has been your high and low of the week so far?
Word is American Research Group teased they'll be releasing a poll tomorrow showing Barack Obama within 4 points of John McCain. If so, that's yet another poll trending our way, from 8 on June 2-3 with Rasmussen to 5 last week with Blankenship Enterprises to 4 with ARG.
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