West Virginia Blue
The Best Blogging Community in West Virginia Democratic politics, progressive policies, the good life and free living in Wild, Wonderful West Virginia.
* If you haven't voted yet, please vote on Tuesday. I urge everyone in West Virginia to vote a straight party Democratic Party ticket. In the congressional races, the choices are starkly clear. A Republican victory makes it that much harder for future progressive policy advocacy.
For example, if Raese wins the discourse shifts to arguments about whether whether climate change is real and if work place safety and environmental regulations should exist at all.
If Manchin wins, at least we're starting from a more rational place to fight our battles.
* This is one of those years when I really wished we had instant runoff voting. Instead of voting for the candidate whose views were closest to mine, I was stuck voting for the least worst option with a chance to win.
* If Joe Manchin pulls off a victory, one of the many people he can thank is Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito. In a year when Republicans are picking up seats all over the country, the weak WV GOP bench is a major liability for WV GOP chances.
Since her election in 2000, Capito has worked hard to make sure she's the only viable state GOP candidate. Even in this election, with her best chance ever to welcome aboard fellow Republicans to the WV delegation in DC, Capito has been MIA. If Raese or McKinley squeak out a victory, it'll be no thanks to her.
* The most famous political science model for predicting US House election outcomes says the Republicans are expected (based on the economy and historic conditions like party in power) to win 45 seats. Nate Silver's current model estimates a Republican margin of 55 seats--not far off. As Atrios recently put it, "I think the ignored true narrative of this election season is that as horrible as the economy is, it's a miracle the Dems are seeming to do as well as they are and especially that Obama remains relatively popular." (We'll see on Wednesday is that's really true.)
The outcome of WV-01 will be one of the indications of how the national wind is blowing. I have no idea how it, or the composition of the House, will end up.
The only predictions I'm prepared to make for tomorrow are that Manchin, Capito, and Rahall will all win. No major changes will happen in the composition of the WV state house.
Whatever the election outcome, there's a rocky road ahead.
Derek Scarbro asks a very good question. From an email:
Where is John Raese?
Raese's controversial positions on minimum wage, public education, and Social Security force difficult questions for Republican bus tour
Despite pledging to participate in the West Virginia GOP's farcical bus tour, John Raese has yet to set foot on the bus. A number of groups yesterday demanded answers from the other participants on the tour regarding their opinions on Raese's out-of-touch positions on eliminating the minimum wage, halting all environmental protections, closing public schools, and privatizing Social Security. Could it be that Raese is sitting this one out to avoid these questions?
"If I were David McKinley, Shelley Moore Capito, or Spike Maynard, I certainly would not want to have to explain to West Virginia voters why I am riding on a bus with a guy who wants to eliminate the minimum wage," said WV Democratic Party Executive Director Derek Scarbro. "Raese is so out-of-touch, it appears that even his Republican buddies don't want to be seen with him."
After skipping the first 10 events on the tour, it is no surprise he was a no-show at event at Shelly Moore Capito's headquarters in Martinsburg today.
WVGOP Press Release: As GOP Party Chairman Mike Stuart said, "We'll have Shelley Moore Capito. We'll have John Raese. We'll have Spike Maynard. We'll have David McKinley and a whole host of local candidates that are running on the ballot."
My guesses are Raese is campaigning in Pennsylvania where Sarah Palin endorsed him for the U.S. Senate or he went home to Florida to clean up a spill on his pink "peach" marble driveway. Hey, that driveway cost more than the average West Virginia home and someone has to supervise the help when they polish it.
So here is a contest for West Virginia Blue readers with the winner getting his or her name listed on a front page post. Where do you think John Raese is since he's not on the GOP's bus?
United they Stand???
Do GOP Candidates Agree with Raese's Radical Positions?
Charleston, W.Va. - Today Republican congressional candidates and their state chairman start a three-day bus tour with their US Senate nominee John Raese. Voters deserve to know whether congressional candidates Shelley Moore Capito, David McKinley, and Spike Maynard agree with Raese's radical positions.
"These are candidates are going to stand side-by-side John Raese for three days," noted WV Democratic Party Chairman Larry Puccio. "Voters will have to assume they agree with his radical positions unless they tell us otherwise. Do they want to abolish the minimum wage like John Raese? Are they against people with pre-existing conditions getting health care? Do they want to eliminate the Department of Education, etc., etc.?"
As GOP Party Chairman Mike Stuart said, "We'll have Shelley Moore Capito. We'll have John Raese. We'll have Spike Maynard. We'll have David McKinley and a whole host of local candidates that are running on the ballot."
A few of Raese's radical issue positions that the Republican candidates must answer for are:
1. Abolishing the minimum wage - Raese even thinks the minimum wage is unconstitutional
2. Allowing health insurance companies to deny coverage to people with pre-existing conditions - Raese compared sick people to wrecked cars
3. Abolishing the Department of Education and eliminating billions in federal grants for public schools - Raese lists this as a priority
4. Ending tariffs on cheap foreign steel - Raese blames the recession on these protections for the American steel industry
The West Virginia Citizen Action Group has similar questions:
Do "Birds of a Feather" Ride Raese's Campaign Bus?
Does the whole crew agree with his extreme positions?
Charleston, WV - As the Republican Campaign tour bus leaves Charleston early this morning does the whole bunch subscribe to the lead candidate's extreme views on environmental protection?*
"Do Capito, Maynard, and McKinley really believe we should repeal 'all laws regulating air quality, water pollution and minimum wages' as John Raese suggests? I think they owe it to the voters of West Virginia to answer this question at every stop of their campaign bus this week," suggested Gary Zuckett, Exec. Dir. of WV Citizen Action Group, a long time consumer and environmental protection organization.
"Raese makes no bones about his desire to eliminate hard-fought protections for clean air and water. I can't help but wonder if this is a team position or just the rantings of a candidate that can't relate to the fact that average hard-working West Virginians want their kids to breathe unpolluted air and drink water free of dangerous chemicals," Zuckett added, "Is Raese the 'canary in the mine' set there to alert voters to the toxic positions of the rest of the busses occupants?"
Zuckett encouraged all media outlets to raise these questions to all riders on the bus.
* "during a talk to 45 people at the Inter-Service Club luncheon at the Charleston Civic Center Tuesday...Raese called for an end to laws regulating air quality, water pollution and minimum wages." ["Raese Wants Government out of Education," Charleston Gazette, 03/16/06]
* "In his appearance last week before Charleston's merged civic clubs, the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate said he would abolish federal pollution controls-apparently meaning that polluters could dump all the poisonous waste they want into people's drinking water and the air they breathe." ["Whiz-Bang: Raese on the Stump," editorial, Charleston Gazette, 03/20/06]
Dana Milbank of the WaPo notices what the left bloggers have been saying for years. I'm still surprised the pro-choice Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito wasn't primaried by a teabagger this cycle, but since she's helped undercut any potential GOP rivals over the years, perhaps it's not surprising.
Republican U.S. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito always claimed she was independent and moderate, but as I've predicted she'll have to prove to the right wing extremists who now make up the Republican Party that she's one of them.
Now she's going to be touring with the GOP bus caravan across the state.
Will Capito call out her fellow Republican candidates on their past slurs and bigotry from the other Republicans? When they rail against "big government spending" from the economy saving stimulus program, is she going to point out she touts the stimulus funded projects in WV-02?
In a surprise to the Daily Mail, but not to long-time observers of Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, she chose not to run and is already making excuses:
Capito gave several reasons for staying out of the race, including a possible legal challenge that could confuse an already confused process.
"There has been enough unnecessary chaos and controversy surrounding the vacancy in the U.S. Senate," she said in a statement released this morning. "My candidacy would create more uncertainty, invite a legal challenge, and misrepresent my priorities as a public servant."
So considering the whole Republican pushed Capito Amendment squandered the state legislature's time and money so she could run for the House and Senate at the same time to clear the way just for her to run, is she going to reimburse the state back?
How often will she play West Virginia Republicans as suckers? Every opportunity, apparently.
Here's the video of Capito making her announcement.
Hoppy Kercheval states what we've been saying this cycle and in previous election cycles too here at West Virginia Blue:
...she's also cautious, and there is a body of evidence that suggests Capito will keep her powder dry for another race on another day.
Here's what Kercheval, who often carries water for the WV GOP doesn't admit: Capito will tease out a potential Senate run as long as she can in order to entice more people to contribute to her war chest for WV-02.
She's done it before when Republicans in the state and nationally wanted her to challenge Senators Rockefeller and Byrd in their last races. (Here's video footage of her discussing her decision not to run against Rockefeller in 2008 after teasing out a potential bid for those with short memories.)
All along she kept telling Republicans she would consider it, but in each case it was clear to anyone with a brain, which of course excludes anyone who is a Republican these days, that she would not run.
She's got a good gig and the power of the incumbency in WV-02. She is helped by low information voters who don't know she's pro-choice and who believe she is moderate when she votes in a very partisan rightwing manner.
The last thing Capito needs is a run for a different office that will lead to her facing real scrutiny about her lack of accomplishments.
She'll tease the Republicans as long as she can get money for it but at the last opportunity she'll find a reason not to run.
She's done it at least twice before. Will the third time be different with her facing the juggernaut Gov. Joe Manchin? Bloggers on the left and right who think because President Obama is not popular in the state will hurt down ticket candidates in elections here have clearly not looked at how the elections in '04 and '08 played out. Obama lost in a landslide in WV, nailing almost the exact vote percentage as he did with white voters nationally (41 percent in WV to 43 percent nationally). But the Democrats gained seats in the House of Delegates and State Senate and won every statewide office that year.
Of course not. But it's a good con game for her to play for her own selfish reasons. And all those Republicans in the state legislature who squandered the state's time and money to go to bat for her are just her suckers. If she "runs" for the Senate, it'll be just to get more money for her WV-02 campaign. Like any scam artist, she'll have to be watched closely so that she doesn't pull any election shenanigans like she did in 2008 when she used Congressional office signs at her political campaign HQ. But if past behavior is any guide she'll tease it out before racing for the House.
If you want to know why Joe Manchin is eager to run for Senate as soon as possible, look no further than the results of this Rasmussen poll released today:
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in West Virginia, taken Thursday night, shows Manchin with 53% support, while Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito earns 39% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer another candidate in the race, and five percent (5%) are undecided.
If former West Virginia Secretary of State Betty Ireland is his GOP rival, Manchin captures 65% voter support. Ireland picks up 26%. Three percent (3%) again like some other candidate, while six percent (6%) are undecided.
Yet while 77% of the state's voters approve of the job Manchin is doing as governor, he would be running in a challenging political environment for any Democratic candidate.
Only 35% of voters in the state approve of how President Obama is doing his job, while 64% disapprove. This is a much higher rate of disapproval than is found in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
Now, I take this all with a giant grain of salt as Rasmussen has rated poorly among all of the pollsters. But, they generally have a strong Republican bias, so if this is Manchin's floor, that's really saying something.
It's too bad they didn't poll any other Democrats. It would be nice to know how someone like Rep. Rahall matched up across the state vs. Capito, if for no other reason to get a better pulse of Dem/Rep party strength independent of Manchin's personal position as incumbent Gov.
In order to help better acquaint readers who may be out of the news cycle, I have put together (to the best of my ability) a bit of a preview for the district congressional elections that will occur in the fall.
The primaries will be in early May, and there hasn't been a lot of buzz (at least to my knowledge) about them. I only found out a month or so ago that The first district was receiving a democrat to challenge.
So here we go
Let's start with the First Congressional DIstrict.
Current seatholder: Alan Mollohan (D-WV)
The long-time serving Democrat, Mollohan, first got elected into the house in 1983, meaning he has served roughly 27 years at this position. In 2008, Mollohan ran unopposed. Mollohan has seen his share of controversies, and will also see a democrat contending for his seat in the primary. This will be his first Democrat to challenge him since Harley Staggers Jr. in 1992.
Challenger: Michael Oliverio II
Oliverio has worked his way up from the bottom. He was elected student body president at WVU. Eventually, Oliverio ran for a seat in the house of delegates and was elected in 1993, and in 1995 assumed office in the West Virginia State Senate where he currently remains representing the 13th district.
Oliverio has had a tendency to focus hard on the national debt, and how to attend to and fix it.
It should be interesting to see how this one plays out, although I would predict a Mollohan victory given the difficulty of unseating a 14 term incumbent.
Other Challengers on the republican side include Mac Warner, Cindy Hall, Tom Stark, Sarah Minear, David McKinley, and Patricia Levenson. Further information will be provided in the coming months.
WV Second Congressional District
Current Seatholder: Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV)
Captio is the daughter of the infamous Arch Moore Jr. and has held the seat since 2001. She was elected after Former Governor Bob Wise vacated the seat for the governor position She is the only Republican Congressional representative for the state and she intends to keep her seat. Capito is running for re-election during a good time for Republicans, polls show democrats are favored to lose more than they gain this November. She is considered safe in her district. Last time around, Capito won by a comfortable margin against Byrd state director Anne Barth.
Challenger: Virginia Graf
35 year veteran as an educator who has served as a school principal and is focused on improving education in the district. Graf is very active in volunteerism and political organizations throughout her community. Graf has a steep hill to climb if she wants to take this seat. Democrats are not the most popular delegation, she is facing an incumbent Republican, and the district is considered safe for Capito.
WV Third Congressional District
Current Seatholder: Nick Rahall (D-WV)
Rahall is heading into his 33rd year in the House, being elected in 1977. He succeeded Ken Hechler when he ran for governor. Rahall and his district are considered by CQ Politics to be a safe democrats, and him being a 33 year incumbent will very much improve his chances.
Challenger:
Rahall could be facing opposition from any of the following
Bruce Barilla (D)
America's Christian Heritage Week Founder & Hotel Worker
Lee Bias (R)
Nurse Anesthetist
Marty Gearheart (R)
Sign Company Sales Executive, Ex-Teacher
Of course Insurance Rep.Shelley Moore Capito won't criticize a Republican. Her faux "civility caucus" was never about creating a civil atmosphere from debate, but just a way for her to be incivil while allowing her to pretend otherwise. Sort of like how she pretends to be opposed to abortion one day and pro-choice the next day, depending on her audience.
Of course Capito voted how the insurance companies told her to vote. They want to cut off people with pre-existing conditions and deny coverage of the sick. The insurance industry has given Capito more than $930,800 in campaign contributions over the years. Nearly 20 percent of Capito's constiuents currently have no health insurance and the vast majority of them will benefit from this healthcare reform measure. But those people don't write her big campaign contributions so there's no sense in expecting her to look out for their interests.
Pelosi, in an e-mail from spokesman Nadeam Elshami, pointed out Thursday that the legislation gave 282,000 of Minority Whip Eric Cantor's constituents tax cuts, in addition to providing tax breaks to Republican Reps. Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia, Scott Garrett of New Jersey and Tom Rooney of Florida.
and:
Pelosi on Wednesday pointed out that Republicans have been to "ribbon cuttings" related to stimulus projects.
As this site and others have pointed out, Capito has tried to take credit for projects funded by the same recovery act that she opposed in lockstep with the House GOP.
I was listening to a national radio show this morning (I think it was Marketplace Morning Report but I'm not sure) and Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (WV-02) was on talking about the 1000 jobs in the Toyota plant near Charleston, many of them "her constituents" and "people she's met."
She went on to say while she's certainly concerned about those jobs, she's more concerned about the safety of her constituents that drive Toyotas on snowy hilly roads. She wants to know Toyota has a safe product.
I think it's great that Capito is embracing the role of government regulation and oversight to ensure that consumers are protected from corporate greed that leads to injury or death. This certainly is a legitimate role for government regulation.
Now, after over a decade in public office with mounting evidence of the detrimental effects of processing and burning coal, and mining coal, when will Capito's concern for her constituents extend to exposure from those hazards?
Surely, Shelley, that's an equally legitimate place for sound government oversight, right?
Good afternoon, West Virginia Blue readers. This is your afternoon open thread to discuss all things Hill-related. Use this thread to praise or bash Congresscritters, share a juicy tip, ask questions, offer critiques and suggestions, or post manifestos. We'll be here all weekend.
Some of the Hill news that's fit to blog is over the fold...
First, it calls for big cuts in Social Security benefits for everyone currently under 55 years of age. On top of the cuts it also calls for privatizing Social Security.
Basically the exact plan President Bush tried in 2005. Next, it calls for the full privatization and phasing out of Medicare. It'll be replaced by a system of vouchers in which instead of getting Medicare you get a voucher to buy un-reformed private insurance.
Weirdly, with all that, the draft GOP budget doesn't get the federal budget into surplus until sometime after 2060, which seems like a pretty long time. But isn't this sort of a big deal? House Republicans are poised to run in 2010 on slashing or abolishing the two most popular federal government programs -- Social Security and Medicare.
You may remember that Capito brought President Bush to West Virginia to talk up his Social Security privatization plan, so presumably she'll be on board with that.
Really though, someone ought to ask Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (WV-02) what she thinks of her party's budget. And, if she's not for it, what is her plan for reducing the deficit?
Copyright 2011 West Virginia Blue
Site content may be used for any purpose without explicit permission unless otherwise specified.
This site exists thanks to financial support from BlogPAC, dedicated volunteers and participation by members of this community. The views expressed at West Virginia Blue belong solely to their respective authors.
If you want to know why Joe Manchin is eager to run for Senate as soon as possible, look no further than the results of this 
