West Virginia Blue
The Best Blogging Community in West Virginia Democratic politics, progressive policies, the good life and free living in Wild, Wonderful West Virginia.
As Republicans try to pressure members of the Blue Dog coalition to abandon what they like to term as Obamacare by pointing to last night's losses, the true story of why the Virginia's gubernatorial race went south hasn't been widely told. The fact is that Democratic hopeful Creigh Deeds shot himself in the foot when he publicly shunned the public option, because exit polls indicate that Democrats just didn't bother to come to the polls in Virginia. The early reports were that young Dems stayed away in droves yesterday.
So while the media overlooks the real story by posing yet another bogus question in an attempt to spread doubts about waning public support for health care, political insiders realize that Blue Dog constituents are not only actually for seeing to it that the working poor get health care coverage, but desire a strong public option as well. That the Blue Dogs themselves aren't really flapping their gums much over Pelosi's plan to promulgate a strong public option speaks volumes about just how conflicted they are .
Which brings us to Sen. Joe Lieberman's position on filibustering the health care bill to kill it. The money the former chairman of the Democratic Leadership Council is raking in by demagoging his position as would-be spoiler to impress his campaign financiers is phenomenal. But even his Connecticut constituents have expressed overwhelming support for the public plan.
On Late Night with David Letterman last night Senator Joe's former running mate (and former vice president) Al Gore said that he and Lieberman were still very close, and that he was certain that Lieberman didn't want to be on the wrong side of history when it came to passing a health care bill.
Let's all hope that Gore is prescient on yet another critical issue.
The staff of the West Virginia Public Service Commission filed a motion today that either (1) the PSC dismiss the PATH application, or (2) the applicants agree to "tolling" (putting it on hold) until two conditions are met:
- that the companies file an application in Maryland (where it already was dismissed because of "a technicality"); and
- that the companies provide new economic and electricity demand forecasts, plus the 2010 Regional Transmission Expansion Plan now being worked on.
First came a significant change in the Maryland situation. In early September the commission in that state dismissed the application without prejudice - meaning it can be re-filed - because the PATH companies do not meet the Maryland definition of an "electric utility." The original application had been filed by Potomac Edison "on behalf of" the PATH companies. PotEd does meet the definition, but wasn't supposed to be doing any of the work or providing any of the services. When the application was dismissed, the various PATH spokesmen waved it off as a technicality and said it would be re-filed.
But the Maryland PSC gave them a 30-day deadline to re-file, or at least provide a time line for when it would be re-filed. On the 30th day, the companies submitted a letter basically saying, "We're thinking, we're thinking." (I keep hearing Jack Benny's voice in my head...) No specific information was provided.
So then in early October the staff of the Virginia State Corporation Commission filed a motion to dismiss in that state, arguing that as long as there is no application in Maryland, they couldn't evaluate the Virginia application because the line has no terminus.
The companies filed a response to the Virginia motion that said, "No, no, don't do that, and if you do it we'll go nuclear - we'll ask the federal government to step in and take over."
[BTW, that's fine with us - to do that they'll have to appeal to the Supreme Court, since the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals, which covers Virginia and West Virginia, already rejected the provision in the 2005 energy act that gave the feds jurisdiction. Talk about tying it up in litigation for years!]
Today the staff of our own PSC not only echoed the argument of the Virginia staff in their motion, they actually stepped up the heat on the companies by pointing out that new forecasts for the economy and energy demand may show there's no need for PATH at all!
The staff also pointed out the possible farce that might ensue if the WV application is allowed to stand, with "stale" and "outdated" forecasts, while any new application in Maryland will have to include the new forecasts.
And they even offered a defense of the intervenors in West Virginia, who would be required to spend scarce resources analyzing and arguing the merits of out-of-date information. (Thank you, staff, for looking out for us!)
I've said it before and I'll say it again - PATH is in trouble here ...
It seems that PATH (the Potomac Appalachian Transmission Highline) is not exactly experiencing a smooth road to approval.
The staff of the Virginia State Corporation Commission, counterpart to our own Public Service Commission, filed a motion today to dismiss the PATH application, because:
[T]here now exists such a level of uncertainty as to the termination point of the PATH Project that the Staff cannot discharge its duty to analyze the application and to advise the Commission on whether the project should be approved and, if approved, where it should be routed.
What could possibly have caused such a roadblock? The rejection of the PATH application by the Maryland Public Service Commission in early September, followed by PATH's failure to re-file the application - or at least make its intentions known - within 30 days.
The staff motion points out that the SCC is spending scarce resources trying to process the application, that Frederick and Loudoun counties are spending scarce resources preparing for hearings, and that citizens are spending scarce resources trying to fight it. In other words, lots of money on something that's becoming more uncertain by the day.
Now let's see if our own PSC staff will take any action.
LEBANON, Va. - It was a time when Appalachia, burdened with some of the highest unemployment and poverty rates in the nation, decided to help itself. Twenty years later, government leaders say the Virginia Coalfield Economic Development Authority works.
[snip]
The goal was to form a regional agency that could use coal and gas severance taxes to diversify the economy in a region almost solely dependent on coal. Because one day, community leaders realized, the coal would run out.
"We raised the severance tax and put it into economic development ourselves," Quillen said. "I'm just so proud of what this authority does because I think it sends out a signal from Southwest Virginia to other places that we're going to be counted and we're going to help ourselves, and you should come in and help us too."
Jonathan Belcher, VCEDA's executive director, said in its 20 years the authority has helped to create 12,000 jobs and draw $2 billion in private investment to the region. Over those two decades the authority has approved $117 million in funding for 208 projects. And thousands of those new jobs, Belcher said, are in industries other than coal - more than offsetting the job losses in the industry during that period.
[snip]
As it enters its third decade, VCEDA's latest campaign is aggressively marketing the coalfields as "Virginia's e-region," with millions of dollars dedicated to deploying broadband Internet technology across the region's seven counties.
"Just about every industry now has to have high-speed fiber-optic broadband," Belcher said. "That is a key competitive advantage for the region."
The authority's focus is on high-tech jobs alongside the energy jobs, "both traditional energy jobs and the advanced energy jobs of the 21st century," Belcher said. In other words, he said, the region welcomes green jobs with open arms.
Alpha Natural Resources CEO Michael Quillen, who was VCEDA's first chairman, said the authority had "a pretty rocky start."
The idea wasn't well-received by elected officials who didn't like the thought of a regional authority deciding how money would be distributed among seven counties, three of which produce most of the severance tax revenue...
Some key points so far
1. Diversification provides news jobs as coal mining jobs inevitable disappear.
2. Political independence is necessary for good longer-term planning.
3. Coal mining and other industry can co-exist when resources are specifically allocated and the right structure put in place to make it happen.
But... there are some potential problems:
Kathy Selvage, vice-president of Southern Appalachian Mountain Stewards, a nonprofit group based in Big Stone Gap, Va., said VCEDA's work is not truly diversifying the region's economy; instead, she argues, it is building up the region's dependence on coal.
"Severance money should not be used to promote coal, and that's what they're doing with building a power plant; they're not promoting diversification," Selvage said. "When you're creating a bigger demand for coal, that's not diversifying your economy."
Steve Fisher, a retired professor who lives in Emory, Va., and has taught and written extensively about the region, said VCEDA should be encouraging a model different from traditional economic development. He said severance tax revenue should be used to address the overall needs of the community and develop a locally based, sustainable economy.
The $1.8 billion coal-fired power plant under construction in Wise County is touted as a crowning achievement of VCEDA's work.**
(** Update: Per information in this comment, VCEDA was not responsible for developing the coal plant, that was due to later legislative action...)
Okay, that's definitely a problem. We don't need any more coal-fired power plants in this area. That's not diversification I can believe in. The rest of their projects sound a lot better: call centers, R&D centers, and other office space.
Belcher said. "They went from that county probably having the least-developable property all over the state to having maybe the most property."
Belcher said VCEDA has "allowed a tremendous amount of economic development to happen in the area that would not have happened otherwise."
"If you look around the region at pretty much any of the major economic development projects that have occurred over the past 20 years there has been some VCEDA funding or some role that VCEDA has played," he said.
So another important lesson: get the charter right for diversification in economic development, not more coal-centric economic development.
"The cap and trade and climate change issue is vindication for why this group is here," said Tommy Hudson, president of the Virginia Coal Association and vice-chairman of VCEDA's executive advisory board.
"We all knew coal would be here for a finite time and we'd have to have the industries to replace it," Hudson said. "Coal might be here for less time because of climate change, and that makes our work and the work of VCEDA more important."
[snip]
"You make such a tremendous difference here," Ford Quillen said. "There's no more moral or better thing to do than to provide jobs for your people."
There is no time like the present to responsibly end Mountain Top Removal and actively work to diversify the West Virginia economy. Twenty years ago the Virginia legislature had the vision to start the process for Virginia coal fields. Their foresight is paying major dividends today.
When will the our legislature start preparing West Virginia for a future beyond coal?
While 2010 will be chock-full of exciting races at all levels of government. In 2009, though, there will be two marquee races across the country: the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey. Republicans are favored in both races, but both races should come down to the wire, and Democrats can hold both seats - with your help.
In Virginia, Democratic State Senator Creigh Deeds won an impressive, come-from-behind victory for the nomination this past Tuesday, demonstrating a strong ground game. The Republican nominee will be far-right-winger Bob McDonnell. The best description for McDonnell's brand of Republicanism is that he is a Pat Robertson disciple. You can learn more about McDonnell at TheRealBobMcDonnell.com. Deeds and McDonnell have tangled before, in the 2005 Virginia Attorney General race, where McDonnell barely edged Deeds by 323 votes (yes, just 323 votes - that's not a typo with zeroes missing) out of over 1.94 million votes counted. This race will be exceptionally close, so every single dollar contributed and every single hour spent volunteering will make a real difference. A bit of good news is that the first poll taken after Tuesday's primary, by Rasmussen Reports, shows Deeds with a 47-41 lead over McDonnell, but this could just be due to a primary bump. Rasmussen's last poll showed McDonnell leading Deeds 45-30. Your support will help Deeds sustain his new lead.
In New Jersey, Democratic incumbent Governor Jon Corzine will square off against Republican former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie. Christie is very much at home in the Republican Culture of Corruption. Republican Christie has faced scandals involving no-bid contracts, abuse of the state pension system, pay-to-play, and even allegedly cutting a deal to get his younger brother's sentence reduced after being implicated for fraudulent trading practices on Wall Street. Despite Christie's mountain of scandal, New Jersey's lagging economy has hurt Governor Corzine's poll numbers. Recent polling gives Christie a 7 to 13 point lead over Corzine. Research 2000, May 25-27: Christie 46, Corzine 39; Rasmussen Reports, June 4: Christie 51, Corzine 38; and, Quinnipiac, June 10: Christie 50, Corzine 40. In other words, Christie has an edge, but the fundamentals of the race moving forward favor Governor Corzine. As the economy gradually picks up over the coming months and voters learn more about Christie's corrupt background, New Jersey's blue state status will shine through and Governor Corzine should tighten the race back up. Your support will help Governor Corzine tighten the race up even faster.
Below are the links to how you can connect with the gubernatorial campaigns (and - please - contribute anything you can to these campaigns, and spread the word!). Republicans are expecting (and expected) to win both of these races. However, after being upset in the NY-20 special U.S. House election and losing a U.S. Senator to a Party switch, the GOP is reeling. Losing either (or both!) VA-Gov or/and NJ-Gov would be a major body blow and simply crush Republicans heading into the 2010 calendar year. If Democrats across the country are able to support these Democratic campaigns, we can flush the conventional wisdom down the toilet and deliver two more embarrassments to the Rush-Newt-Cheney Republican Party and two more losses to the Michael Steele RNC.
Before you stop reading, understand that West Virginia is a full participant in the Chesapeake Bay Restoration Program, and that the agricultural economies of a few eastern panhandle counties (Hardy, Pendleton & Grant) are deeply intertwined with Virginia's Shenandoah Valley, especially Rockingham County and the growing little city (population 44,000) of Harrisonburg.
VIRGINIA GOVERNOR TIM KAINE TO KEYNOTE JJ-DINNER
Gov. Kaine serves as the National Co-Chair for Obama/Biden for President
CHARLESTON, W.Va. - Today West Virginia State Democratic Party Chairman Nick Casey announced that Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine has accepted Gov. Joe Manchin's invitation to be the keynote speaker at the annual Jefferson-Jackson Dinner. The dinner will be held Saturday, September 20, at the Charleston Civic Center. Doors open at 5:30 p.m. and the program will start at 6:45 p.m.
"We're very excited to have Governor Kaine this year," Chairman Nick Casey said. "He gave a great speech at the national convention and we look forward to him sharing his message with West Virginians."
Gov. Kaine has served as Sen. Barack Obama's National Co-Chair for his presidential campaign and was elected Governor of Virginia in 2005. Tickets for the JJ Dinner can still be purchased by calling the State Democratic Party HQ at (304) 342-8121. Tickets are $100 each or $1,250 to reserve a table of 10 seats.
wvdemocrats.com
Past keynote speakers include Sen. Barack Obama and former President Bill Clinton.
I still think that it was religion more so than race why Obama lost heavily in the Democratic primaries here in West Virginia and Kentucky this past May, especially among white Pentecostals and evangelicals in the solidly Democratic Appalachian coalfields where I bluemcdowell hail from. And not just me but a sufficiently large number of political experts much more intelligent about this than I am as well.
Some white Republican Pentecostals and evangelicals are now claiming that Barack Obama is the person mentioned in the Bible, namely the Book of Revelation, called the "Antichrist," which is supposed to assume power after the "Rapture of the Church" in which all true born-again Christians will meet Jesus Christ in the air, first the Christian dead which will be resurrected, and also "those who are alive and remain will be caught up together to meet the Lord in the air" according to their own biblical doctrine, and that the "Antichrist" will first make his presence felt immediately after the "Rapture of the Church."
Basically they cite Obama's middle name Hussein, which was deceased Iraqi dictator Saddam's last name, and the similiarity of Obama's last name to "Osama bin Laden."
Actually their very own biblical doctrine contradicts what they're saying, yet in an attempt to destroy Obama's candidacy because of abortion and other "values" issues they often cite these two reason in their attempt to help John McCain and the Republican Party keep the white evangelical and Pentecostal vote in West Virginia, Virginia, and Kentucky this November.
That false rumor has already spread like wildfire, especially in the West Virginia, Virginia, and Kentucky coalfields which is usually the most Democratic region of all three states, and could very well been a main reason Obama lost the West Virginia and Kentucky Democratic primaries by huge margins in both states, and is now being used to hopefully keep Virginia Republican Red in November as well since most current polls show Obama with a slight lead in the Old Dominion, which primarily because of heavily Democratic-trending Northern Virginia has a chance of turning Democratic Blue for the 1st time since 1964.
In McDowell County where I live that falsehood has already been spread all over the county, and sadly did impact the Democratic primaries here in the "Free State," and not just here but the rest of southern West Virginia as well.
And the shocking part about all this is that according to their very own biblical doctrine there is no possible way Obama can be "the Antichrist," as their very own doctrine which says that Obama has to a Middle Eastern resident who is half-Jewish.
Neither of Obama's biological parents were of Middle Eastern or Jewish descent, as his father was of Kenyan heritage, as Kenya is located in east-central Africa, and his mother of mostly if not 100 percent white Caucasian heritage. Obama also wasn't even born in the Middle East either of Palestinian or Jewish descent, as his birthplace was Hawaii instead.
Thus Barack Obama is neither of Middle Eastern or Jewish heritage according to Republican evangelicals and Pentecostals' very own teachings....
but as we all know by their continued support of the Republican Party and President Bush their leaders will use and do anything and everything necessary and stop at nothing at all to elect a fellow Republican to the presidency for another 4 years, primarily for McCain granting them more politically conservative justices like John Roberts and Samuel Alito to the Supreme Court to overturn Roe vs. Wade and for other Religious Right purposes...
including even disobeying and contradicting their very own biblical doctrine and teachings.
That falsehood may have contributed much more to Obama's landslide defeats in Kentucky and West Virginia's Democratic primaries to Hillary Clinton especially in what's actually supposed to be the most solid Democratic parts of the state, the Appalachian coalfields, than previously thought.
That false rumor is still very commonly spread here in McDowell County where I live. I have a close female friend whom her and her mom desperately want to vote for Obama this November but are hesitant to do so because of that falsehood.
Republican evangelicals and Pentecostals teach that if you take the "Mark of the Beast" or "the Antichrist" as mentioned in the Book of Revelation you'll immediately sign your ticket to hell forever and ever the very moment you do so.
Meanwhile Barack Obama is in fact a very devout and practicing born-again Christian...
while I've never heard of McCain as much as ever darkening a church's doors.
Sadly the damage may have already been done here in the normally Democratic West Virginia and Kentucky coalfields, where socially conservative Pentecostalism and evangelicalism has a very, very strong and loyal following, and could very well hurt us Democrats in our neighbors to the east the key swing state of Virginia which is very close to turning Democratic Blue for the 1st time since 1964 as well...
not to mention the all the other important swing states with large evangelical and Pentecostal congregations and denominations, like Missouri, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Iowa, Florida, and most definitely the all-important swing state of them all Ohio, in which white evangelicals and Pentecostals are widely believe to have the sole reason that Bush carried all those important swing states with the exception of Pennsylvania in 2004, and thus retain his seat in the Oval Office.
It's up to us Democrats to educate voters like my female friend and her mom whom is a very devout Pentecostal, both of whom could very well vote for Obama this November or sadly stay home and not vote at all because they thankfully don't like John McCain either.
Or else we Democrats might lose yet another presidential election due to so-called hypocritical "values" issues.
Sad but true.
I myself, actually with a majority of theologians, personally believe that the term "Antichrist" doesn't refer to one specific person at all but rather everything and everyone that are evil and opposed to Jesus himself and his teachings instead.
Via va dare in the comments, Barack Obama is coming back to Appalachia.
Please join Barack Obama at a Town Hall in Bristol, where he'll talk about his vision for bringing America together and creating the kind of change we can believe in.
Town Hall with Barack Obama
Virginia High School
1200 Long Crescent Dr.
Bristol, VA 24201
Thursday, June 5th
Doors Open: 9:45 a.m.
Program Begins: 11:45 a.m.
The event is free and open to the public; however, seating is limited, and tickets are required.
For security reasons, do not bring bags and limit personal items. No signs or banners are permitted.
This is an excellent move. Despite those who claimed he should write off Appalachia, he has a real chance of making inroads here once people become familiar with him and not the lies being spread about him.
Now we need to get him in Bluefield and Beckley, Charleston, Parkersburg, Wheeling, Morgantown, and Martinsburg.
UPDATE:
I just want to point out that the first place Obama is coming as part of the general election campaign is Appalachia. Some have said Obama should write off Appalachia. Instead the first place he's coming to is our region. That says a lot about him. I've consistently said he should come here and people would like him once they got familiar with him. But in any event he should still a line from Ronald Reagan and say that while many in Appalachia might not be for him as president, he would be a president for them.
Virginia is showing that not only can a candidate who opposes mountaintop removal be competitive...but two seperate polls are showing that Senator Barack Obama is up by 15+% in a mountaintop removal state.
Two polls have confirmed Obama over 50%, and Clinton under 40%.
The 2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election had mostly good news and yet some bad as well.
First off I want to apologize for being wrong on the date that the last Republican governor was governor. It was 1967 and not the 50s like I thought it was. I sincerely apologize for my mistake.
First for the good news:
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Steve Beshear as expected won in a landslide over law-breaking Republican governor Ernie Fletcher. While we Democrats didn't quite receive that magical 60 percent we had hoped we would receive, Democrats carried just about carried every part of the state, including even prominent supposedly Republican strongholds in western Kentucky and the Cincinnati-Covington suburbs. Those parts of Kentucky get a bum rap for being too Republican when actually independents are the dominant force up there. Thus I'm not surprised as much as most people are. And the same is true for western Kentucky as well where the evangelical presence is perhaps the strongest in the Bluegrass State.
The eastern Kentucky coalfields, the part of Kentucky that is almost exactly like our home state of West Virginia in every way, as expected remained Democratic and even normally reliable Republican Johnson, Martin, and yes almost always Republican Leslie County, a county that former Republican President Richard Nixon even visited, believe it or not, voted Democratic this time.
South Central Kentucky the most Republican part of the state as expected because more voters there are Southern sympathizers who usually vote more like the Deep South than any other part of Kentucky was where Fletcher did his best, and even there were cracks in Republican support.
And the Democratic city of Louisville in Jefferson County where the African-American effect is the greatest in Kentucky went 2 to 1 in favor of Beshear, and since there are still 5 precincts in Jefferson County where the final vote totals still haven't been calculated yet the margin statewide for Beshear will probably be a little larger and cross the 59 percent mark but not quite the 60 percent I and many other Democrats had hoped for.
UPDATE: All Jefferson County precincts have now been officially counted meaning 100 percent of the precincts have been counted. There was no change in the percentages.
And Democrats won every other statewide office quite convincingly except for popular Republican Secretary of Agriculture Richie Farmer, whose days as a decent former U of Kentucky basketball player couldn't have hurt his chances, and the Republican Secretary of State Trey Grayson.
Now for the little bad news:
Current Republican Secretary of State Trey Grayson beat Democratic challenger Bruce Hendrickson - spelling - by a larger margin than we Dems hoped for receiving approximately 57 to 58 percent of the vote over Democratic challenger Bruce Hendrickson 42 to 43 percent.
And of course not quite reaching 60 percent in the gubernatorial race of course.
The 2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election's impact on Kentucky, West Virginia, and Virginia and the rest of the nation as well:
I'm firmly convinced now that Kentucky will be an unexpected battleground in the 2008 presidential election. Though I still give the Republicans a slight edge there due to the margin of victory in the gubernatorial race being a little closer than what I had originally suspected, the Republicans will now have to spend more time and effort in the Bluegrass State than they ever dreamed possible. This in a state where Bush actually broke the 60 percent mark in 2004 and in a state which is socially conservative and the evangelical impact is huge.
I don't know if I've ever seen any presidential election where a political party is in danger of not carrying a state where they won over 60 percent of the vote. But this might be an exception.
As for the Virginias, our beloved home state of West Virginia and our neighbors the "other" Virginia, to me it's currently 50/50 in both states. Since West Virginia is much more like Kentucky than Virginia is except for the far southwestern portion of the Old Dominion, I feel it's a virtual 50/50 tossup in all three states right now.
As for three other states: Tennessee, North Carolina, and Indiana that Kentucky's gubernatorial results could have an impact on, the Republicans currently have a slight lead there right now but those three states could shock a ton of folks in 2008 if the conditions are just right. North Carolina and Tennessee have strong Democratic bases and very very popular and effective Democratic governors and could be ripe for the picking believe it or not.
Indiana would definitely be a shocker since it's a Republican base state where no Democratic presidential nominee has carried it since Lyndon Johnson did in 1964. But currently Indiana is one of the most trending Democratic states in the nation right now, having thrown out 3 incumbent Republican US House or Representative members out of office in 2006 in favor of moderate Democrats.
But the best news of all is the Democratic victories in our bordering state the great Buckeye state of Ohio, the state that most often determines who is President. Democrats in Ohio were victorious big time last night in the local elections up there. Voters in Ohio still have not forgotten the debacle of 2004, where then Republican Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell was huge in the state that eventually was the difference between having a second Bush term instead of John Kerry being our current president
But he like most other prominent Republicans in Ohio were defeated soundly in 2006 and once again last night in 2007...
and yes in 2006 that included the all-important underrated Secretary of State's office.
I also learned just recently that under Ohio election law that the number and percentage of poll workers there in the Buckeye State are decided by the margins of the last election each even year, and since we Democrats won in a landslide in Ohio in 2006 that gives us Democrats just that much more hope that we can elect our nominee for president in 2008
If Ohio stays solidly Democratic in 2008 like it is now here in 2007 - and it looks just great for us right now - it will be very difficult if not impossible for the Republicans to win no matter whom the nominees are.
And on Jan. 21, 2009 the very sad eight-year period of the Bush presidency and complete Republican rule in government will officially thank God be over.
And finally we Americans will have taken our great country back, hopefully this time for good.
I love the Kentucky Wildcats and they have been my favorite team since 1990.
Sorry WVU fans. I don't mean to be offensive. We Democrats need your votes in 2008 since West Virginia will be most definitely be a battleground state like it was in 2000 and 2004.
We Democrats carrying Kentucky in 2008 would not only be very sweet but very shocking as well, and I'll tell you why in my diary.
The 2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election is one of the most intringuing gubernatorial elections ever. And believe it or not this usually nationally insignificant gubernatorial election could have national and even international ramifications for years to come.....
And yes this could even impact the 2008 presidential elections in ways once thought impossible.
Kentucky historically has been a "swing state" as far as presidential elections are concerned, and it's well deserved. Kentucky almost always votes for the winner of the presidential election itself. 1960 and I think 1968 - though not 100 percent sure about '68 - being the only exceptions Every presidential election since 1972 Kentucky has voted for the winner every single time.
In 1976 Jimmy Carter carried Kentucky by a moderately large margin. Since then it has usually leaned Republican just like it's fellow Southern states, the only exceptions being in 1992 and 1996 when Bill Clinton carried it twice, and even that was helped by Ross Perot's independent candidacy where he probably received more Republican-leaning voters than Democratic-leaning ones.
And West Virginia has always tended to vote the same way Kentucky has in presidential elections, the only exception being in 1988 when Republican George H. W. Bush carried Kentucky and Democrat Michael Dukakis carried West Virginia.
Kentucky in many ways is West Virginia's "Big Brother." West Virginians and Kentuckians talk alike, eat alike, have similar educational and economic backgrounds, and are both socially conservative as well.
Kentucky and West Virginia deservedly or not have been the most negatively stereotyped states in the nation. The joke in both states is that "neither the North nor South wants us" and that people in both states feel they have a "chip on our shoulder" and feel that "everybody is against us."
Both states are usually ranked last or near last in almost every economic and social statistic in the country today.
The evangelical vote is crucial for both the Democrats and Republicans in both states. Every since 2000 evangelicals have been very important reasons as to why both Kentucky and West Virginia have voted solidly Republican even though both of our states have very solid Democratic traditions and majority of voters registered as Democrats.
In 2004 however Kentucky was more Republican red than it ever was before. Bush carried Kentucky by a 60-40 margin which was quite significant considering the fact that 57 percent of Kentucky voters are registered Democrats.
And West Virginia as usual followed suit. Bush carried West Virginia by a 56-44 margin even though like its neighbor the Bluegrass State even though 60 percent of voters in West Virginia are registered Democrats.
And in both states the pro-Republican trend has lasted for quite some time really since the Contract of America was used by Republicans in 1994 mid-term elections to take over both Houses of Congress for the very first time since the last true moderate "old-school" Republican President Dwight D. Eisenhower was in office.
And in both states evangelicals and Pentecostals - even though the Pentecostal impact in Kentucky is not as great here as in West Virginia - have been the main reason why.
But lately the Republican tide in both states has seemed to peak. We Democrats have finally started to take back both states again since the 2004 presidential election in West Virginia first and then Kentucky as well.
A self-described liberal was even successful in flipping a US House seat Democratic in socially conservative Kentucky in 2006. John Yarmuth beat an establishment rubber-stamp Republican Anne Northup in the city of Louisville. Still in 2006 that was the biggest if not Democratic success in Kentucky as Republicans still won there for the most part but even then Democrats had been making modest gains in state legislative races.
But My oh My since then how times have changed in the Bluegrass State since then, thanks in large part do a corrupt law-breaking Republican governor named Ernie Fletcher and an ultra-conservative and strongest Bush supporter in the US Senate named Mitch McConnell.
Fletcher was the 1st Republican elected governor in Kentucky since the 1950s - I think though not 100 percent sure about the exact date - in 2003. At the time the Republican Party was riding high in Kentucky, winning just about every major statewide election at the time.
But then McConnell and Fletcher especially have both almost single-handily handed Kentucky back to us Democrats.
Governor Fletcher was indicted I believe in May 2007 of 3 misdemeanor accounts of political favoritism. 14 additional counts were sealed in the case and in total I think 28 counts of political favoritism were issued against him and his Republican cronies in his cabinet.
McConnell on the other hand while not in any legal trouble has recently been slammed and rightfully so in the press for being George W. Bush's biggest supporter in the US Senate. McConnell was even caught on video lying about his office not having anything to do with 12 year old Graeme Frost's intimidation by far right-wing bloggers such as Michelle Malkin who actually stalked the Frosts in their home community.
Before then McConnell and to a lesser extent Fletcher had enjoyed tremendous success and popularity among Kentucky voters because of their ability to "bring home the bacon" and bring federal government dollars home to the Bluegrass State.
Since then it's been all downhill for both of them, Fletcher especially.
Kentuckians since then have not been pleased or impressed at all with either Fletcher or McConnell - Fletcher especially. And not only them but the entire Republican establishment as well.
Enter in a brilliant and intelligent moderate middle-aged Democrat named Steve Beshear. Before this year's election Beshear had struggled somewhat politically in statewide elections, so much he and his campaigns have lost elections where most experts though he had a chance to win.
But My oh My how Beshear learned from his mistakes. His campaigns both in the Democratic primary and the general election as well have been nothing short of impressive. He kicked Fletcher's butt in every single debate there and has united almost every single constituancy there evangelicals and Pentecostals included.
After winning Kentucky's Democratic primary he inherited a 25 point lead off the bat.
And he proved himself than able to retain it in a state that had been heavily trending Republican until just recently even though Fletcher and the Republicans threw everything at him but the kitchen sink. The closest Fletcher came to him was 15 points several weeks ago.
Now Beshear leads at least by 15 points in every single national poll taken in Kentucky with the election being held Tuesday November 6, 2007.
And now even many Kentucky Republicans are supporting Democrat Beshear, something virtually unheard of in any state much less a socially conservative one like Kentucky.
And the economy in Kentucky is another major reason Fletcher is in so much trouble right now. Arguably my home state of W. Virginia might even have a stronger economy than Kentucky does right now especially in the eastern part of state which is almost exactly like my part of the state Southern W. Virginia in just about every single way.
In other words, Democrat Beshear is a virtual lock to be Kentucky's next governor. And I and every proud Democrat in not only Kentucky but the nation as well should be very proud of him. I still don't understand how this intelligent man has never been elected to any major statewide office before.
And not only has this KY gubernatorial election been major news in Kentucky, it has been new in the whole nation as well, and for many different reasons.
It proves that the Democratic Party can win in socially conservative states with a strong evangelical presence.
It proves that Democrats can at least be competitive in Southern states. Yes Kentucky is not Southern in the way that Alabama or Mississippi is concerned, but just like W. Virginians, Kentuckians are much more Southern in tradition and culture than Northern.
It also give us Democrats hope that maybe for the first time in quite some time that maybe us Democrats can pick off a few Southern states even in the national presidential elections. Most polls have Hillary Clinton and John Edwards competitive in Kentucky and the Virginias right now and have both Edwards and Clinton especially winning a state similar to us in many ways the great state of Arkansas quite handily right now.
Yes Hillary Clinton has Arkansas connections thanks to her famous husband but it proves that most experts myself included that Southerners especially in the Upper South states WV, VA, KY, TN, NC and in usually Democratic but still often Republican in most national elections Deep South state AR still are very much open to voting Democratic and even many evangelicals and Pentecostals in our region are starting to consider returning back to our Democratic roots for the 1st time in quite some while.
That still remains to be seen as far as the presidential election is concerned but if we Democrats can pick off a few states like Kentucky, Arkansas, Virginia, or most of all our beloved home state of West Virginia it will give us Democrats a much-needed huge lift as far as the presidential elections are concerned.
And now the question is not whether Beshear will be elected because he will but can he win 60 percent of the vote? 60 percent is the goal we Democrats have set for ourselves in Kentucky Tuesday, November 6, 2007.
And it would be sweet if we can get it in a state that voted 60 percent the other way in 2004.
And ousting once popular ultra-conservative Republican US Senator Mitch McConnell who once many political experts thought was unbeatable.
And all of America is watching Kentucky too right now knowing that a huge 60 percent Democratic win here in a once Republican-leaning socially conservative state could very well lead to a Democratic presidential blowout in 2008!
Copyright 2009 West Virginia Blue
Site content may be used for any purpose without explicit permission unless otherwise specified.
This site exists thanks to financial support from BlogPAC, the tireless efforts of volunteer contributors and continued participation from this community. The views expressed at West Virginia Blue belong soley to their respective authors.
