West Virginia Blue
The Best Blogging Community in West Virginia Democratic politics, progressive policies, the good life and free living in Wild, Wonderful West Virginia.
With news of their arrival (more below), I'd like to extend a warm welcome to West Virginia to Clinton and Obama field staff. We look forward to lots of events and, we hope, many candidate visits in the next 8 weeks.
I'd also like to extend a personal welcome to field staff from both campaigns to West Virginia Blue.
Please feel free to create an account here and directly post information about candidate events. You are welcome to participate at this site like anyone else. I do ask that paid campaign staff members clearly identify their position when posting.
Both Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama's campaigns have contacted your State Democratic Party to let us know that their campaigns are in West Virginia for our May 13th Primary. Senator Clinton is expected to visit the state on Wednesday and as we get more details on her visit, and others by both campaigns, we will let you know.
Both campaigns have staff on the ground and are beginning to work the state for this historic primary. As we get contact information for their staff, headquarters, events, etc. we will make every effort to keep you informed.
Some key dates to remember for this historic primary:
April 22, 2008: Last day to register to vote in the Primary Election. Get an form online here April 23, 2008: Early Voting begins at your County Courthouse during normal business hours and on Saturdays - some counties offer extended hours too.
May 10, 2008: Last Day for Early Voting
May 13, 2008: Primary Election
With three more victories yesterday (resounding ones, at that), the Obama campaign is on a roll. If he keeps it up, his lead in pledged delegates will be large enough to effectively wrap up the nomination by March.
Hillary may yet rebound in Wisconsin, Texas and Ohio. That would set up Penn. as a major showdown. If it is still close after that, North Carolina and West Virginia in May will be closely watched primaries.
If you're involved with West Virginia activities for Hillary** or Obama, let us know how its going.
What kinds of national support are you getting? How do you think your candidate will do in W.Va.? Where does your candidate stand on issues important to West Virginia?
** I would link to a Hillary W.Va. page, too, but I can't find one. At HillaryClinton.com, there are just 40 states in the union and we ain't one of them.
This weekend there are 182 more delegates at stake. Eric Kleefeld at TPM Election Central has a state-by-state breakdown:
Louisiana primary — Saturday, 56 delegates: Obama is considered the favorite here due largely to the large portion black voters among the state's Democrats, and his past performance in the Deep South primaries in South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama. (snip)
Nebraska caucus — Saturday, 24 delegates: Obama has done very well in Mountain/Prairie state caucuses, such as his 74% showing in neighboring Kansas on Super Tuesday, on account of the small Democratic establishments that do exist in this region giving him their support. (snip)
Washington State caucus — Saturday, 78 delegates: This is the single biggest contest of the weekend, and also the one taking place in the bluest state. Although Hillary built up the early support of establishment figures like former Gov. Gary Locke, Sen. Maria Cantwell and recently Sen. Patty Murray, Obama has caught up very quickly. This week he won the endorsement of the state SEIU, the largest union in the state, and today he got the support of current Gov. Christine Gregoire. Also bear in mind that caucuses are all about organization and intensity on the part of a candidate's followers. A SurveyUSA poll released Monday put Obama ahead 53%-40%.
Maine caucus — Sunday, 24 delegates: There hasn't been any major polling on this race, but on paper it looks like Hillary Clinton's best chance for a victory this weekend. She has the support of the state's Democratic establishment, led by Gov. John Baldacci and former Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell, and the demographics don't help Obama very much.
In his prediction thread, Jerome Armstrong at MyDD reprints the actual spreadsheet projections from the Obama campaign:
A while back we posted an inspired (and inspirational) video of Sen. Barack Obama's words put to music. Here's a video response for Sen. Hillary Clinton fans:
In a year when the Republicans have struggled to determine who their least worst old white guy is, the remaining Democratic party candidates are an embodiment of change.
Having two excellent choices in Hillary and Obama is rather inspiring to this Democratic party activist. Having the odds look very good for the next President of the United States to make history in their gender or ethnicity is quite inspiring to this progressive liberal.
``In this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign be a part of aiding a surrender to terror,'' Romney said in a speech to the annual Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington. ``I feel I must now stand aside, for our party and our country.''
So it looks like once again the earliest insider party-annoited Republican candidate--despite all indications along the way to the contrary--will get the nomination. John McCain now faces an incredibly difficult task of rallying a Republican base that has a visceral dislike for him.
First off, congratulations to the West Virginia Republican party. They rolled the dice with their new convention caucus process this year. From what I can see it will be a smashing success at achieving their primary goal--getting the party out of debt.
It'll also have a positive effect of giving West Virginia some Super Tuesday election day coverage. We may not be a completely forgotten state this primary cycle after all!
It's far less clear if this not-so-democratic exercise creates enthusiasm for the Republican party, brings in any new members to stay, or does anything other than confuse voters when the Republican primary happens for the other half of the delegates.
Also, they've still got to put their best foot forward at the convention itself--let's see what kind of press narrative comes out the event.
Who will win?
Could Ron Paul win the W.Va. Republican caucus? Now that Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are slated to make personal appearances in addition to Ron Paul, no. Rep. Paul appears to have the most dedicated band of genuine grassroots support in West Virginia, but the Republican party insiders will never let him win.
The multi-round, winner-take-all voting at the convention will keep Ron Paul (or Mike Huckabee, for that matter) from forging a winning coalition.
To me, the big question is if Mitt Romney can sway enough people with his personal appearance. Romney clearly has the edge on economic issues over McCain--this year's big issue for W.Va. Republicans. Will that be enough?
Yes, I know Mike Huckabee will not be the next President of the United States. He won't even be the Republican nominee. (Saint McCain is on his way of riding the winner-take-all Republican primary system to that dubious honor on Tuesday.)
Still, there will be many people who view Mike Huckabee more favorably after this run for President. tristero at Hullabaloo reminds Nick Kristof there are many reasons why Mike Huckabee is unfit for public office.
Huckabee ignored court testimony in favor of right wing operatives and worked to release a serial rapist. Upon his Huckabee-engineered release, the rapist graduated to murder, possibly twice, before he was caught. Because of this incident, I have spoken with blistering contempt about Huckabee's character.
Huckabee blamed everyone but himself for the release of this rapist/murderer, especially Bill Clinton and lied repeatedly about substantiated facts. Because of his failure to tell the truth about his mistakes, I have denounced Huckabee's integrity numerous times.
During Huckabee's reign as governor, Arkansas' public schools regressed to a pre-modern attitude towards science, especially biology. This neglect was willful, and done with Huckabee's knowledge and consent. Because of his ignorance, I have denounced Huckabee's actions at every opportunity.
It's really happening. When I see a post called "Iowa Caucus Day Weather Forecast" (great Iowa winter weather: "Sunny, with a high near 28"), I know the Presidential election is upon us.
In a few short days at the beginning of January a hundred thousand citizens of Iowa and a few more than that in New Hampshire may well pick our next President. On the other hand, with the ever-tight race between Clinton, Edwards, and Obama there are numerous scenarios where all three can come out of the those two states looking strong. [One example: if candidate X and candidate Y each win a state and candidate Z finishes second in both.]
In stark contrast to the Democratic field, the more voters get to know the Republican candidates the less they any like their choices. The big questions on the Republican side are will Romney or Huckabee implode first and can McCain resurrect himself to be the last man standing?
Many months ago, I predicted an Obama vs. Romney race. I still view that as being as good a prediction as any other. Still, both races remain wide open with three viable candidates for each party.
I feel good about the general election chances of Clinton, Edwards or Obama against Huckabee, McCain or Romney.
Hang on tight, it's going to be a wild ride this final week before the Iowa caucus. The last-ditch efforts will hit with campaigns dropping their ugliest opposition research on competing candidates. Then it'll be an even wilder ride through New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada and on to Super Tuesday on February 5. [Michigan is doing something somewhere in there, too, but that's not looking so relevant.]
What do you think? Will the fine folks in Iowa and New Hampshire anoint the winners or are this year's primaries going to last past January? Will West Virginia ever get to influence a presidential primary?
As we enter the final stretch of the election, let's keep in mind what's still at stake. (Reposted from April 27, 2007.) Democratic presidential candidates Mike Gravel, Sen. Barack Obama, Sen. Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Rep. Dennis Kucinich, Sen. Joe Biden, Bill Richardson and Sen. Hillary Clinton gather on stage prior to the first presidential debate. Photo: Doug Mills/The New York Times
Statements you won't hear from Republican presidential candidates not named Ron Paul: highlights from the the April 26, 2007 Democratic presidential debate in S.C. (transcript)
#10 - GOV. BILL RICHARDSON, D-N.M.
"This war is a disaster. We must end this war. This is what I would do if were president today. I would withdraw all of our troops, including residual troops, by the end of this calendar year."
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